(PN-K-210706) 01 International Consultant on Impact Assessment

Contract

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Background

Viet Nam is particularly vulnerable to climate change and already impacted by more irregular and intense climate variability and change. Two of the regions most vulnerable to droughts-exacerbated by climate change affecting smallholder farmers are the Central Highlands and South-Central Coast. Changes in precipitation are leading to increasing deficits in surface and ground water availability for agricultural production with longer periods of severe water scarcity during the dry season and increased frequency and intensity of droughts. Overall agricultural productivity is falling, with corresponding declines in yields and incomes particularly harmful to small-scale farmers vulnerable to reduced water availability on rain fed lands and within this group, poor and near-poor, ethnic minority and women farmers.

UNDP is collaborating with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI, as the GCF National Designated Authority), and the five participating provinces of Dak Lak, Dak, Nong, Binh Thuan, Ninh Thuan, and Khanh Hoa to implement the project “Strengthening the resilience of smallholder agriculture to climate change-induced water insecurity in the Central Highlands and South-Central Coast regions of Vietnam” (herein after referred to as “the GCF2 Project”), financed by the Green Climate Fund (GCF).

The objective of this project is to empower vulnerable smallholders in five provinces of the Central Highlands and South-Central Coast regions of Vietnam – particularly women and ethnic minority farmers – to manage increasing climate risks to agricultural production. To achieve its objective, the project will enable smallholder farmers to adapt to climate-driven rainfall variability and drought through implementation of the following two linked Outputs:

1.improved access to water for vulnerable smallholder farmers for climate-resilient agricultural production in the face of climate-induced rainfall variability and droughts, and

2.strengthened capacities of smallholder farmers to apply climate and market information, technologies, and practices for climate-resilient water and agricultural management.

The project was developed as part of an integrated programme funded through multiple sources, as envisaged by the Government of Vietnam (GoV), that was aimed at enhancing water security and building the climate change resilience of the agriculture sector focusing on Vietnam’s Central Highland and South-Central Coastal Regions. In alignment with this programme, the project will enable the GoV to adopt a paradigm shift in the way smallholder agricultural development is envisioned and supported through an integrated approach to agricultural resilience starting with planning for climate risks based on identification and analysis of agroecosystem vulnerabilities; enhancing water security and guaranteeing access; scaling up adoption and application of climate-resilient agricultural practices and cropping systems; and creating partnerships among value chain stakeholders to ensure access to market and credit. This approach directly addresses climate risks while also establishing or strengthening institutional capacities for long-term multi-stakeholder support to vulnerable smallholders. Another important element of this integrated programme is an ADB loan initiative that invests in large-scale irrigation schemes. This ADB project offers an important complementarity with this UNDP/GCF project as the latter offers the “last mile” connection to smallholder farmers by connecting them with the ADB-financed larger irrigation schemes.

Impact Evaluation (IE) is an evaluation methodology that is representative of the targeted population with an unbiased and reproducible estimate of the impact of the project. For IE to be unbiased, it needs to combine qualitative information that represents the different perspectives of the project with quantitative estimates that identifies a causal link between the interventions presented under the project that is expected to lead to change in outcome of the households and communities and most importantly minimizes the potential for selection bias. This is in line with the principle of causality or attribution that shows changes in outcomes due to the project. That is, with or without the project, how would beneficiaries (non-beneficiaries) fare without (with participation in) the project?

The use of counterfactual is the major difference between the M&E methodologies. The basic idea of using a counterfactual approach to evaluation is that we measure the impact of the program on those who participated by wiping out any other thing that could have changed at the same time by using a counterfactual (also known as comparison group, control, untreated group, non-participants, non-beneficiaries). Counterfactual creates an approach to construct what would have happened in the absence of the program. The closer the counterfactual resemble the beneficiaries of the project the better the evaluation – a strong counterfactual is one that is similar as possible while a false counterfactual are ones with differences such as when we do a before and after comparison or a treatment-control after the program is completed without a proper baseline.

The IE in this project comprises two phases: 1st phase is the overall IE design, baseline survey and the establishment of a M&E system and periodic surveys during the implementation; 2nd phase focuses primarily on the design and administration of the endline (final) survey and the analysis of project impact by comparing before- and after-project conditions between project target and non-target populations.

The main objective of this consultancy is for the 1st phase of the Impact Evaluation: Overall IE design of the project, including design of IE framework, support the identification of a qualified survey firm, design and administration of baseline survey, establishment of a M&E system and periodic surveys during the implementation, and oversee the launch of the baseline data collection.

Duties and Responsibilities

The successful consultant will be expected to be responsible for the following:

1. Develop an Impact Evaluation design (Approximately 7-8 days): Develop an impact evaluation design which isolates the causal impact of the intervention on key outcome indicators, in consultation with the CO Vietnam team, PMU/CPO responsible for impact evaluation. S/he will propose a preliminary experimental or quasi-experimental design for the impact evaluation in Vietnam that is consistent with the common framework detailed. S/he will seek stakeholder feedback on the preliminary experimental design and revise design based on feedback. S/he will develop a detailed Impact Evaluation design document and Gantt Chart with the CO team and PMU which details the agreed upon identification strategy, data collection and analysis plan, staffing, budget and time frame. Specifically,

• Develop the impact evaluation theory of change
• Together with the team, identify key outcomes indicators and other variables that will be measured as part of the impact evaluation, with due attention to women and ethnic minorities.
• Carry out power calculation and sample size with indicated budget for impact evaluation.
• Gantt Chart outlining the impact evaluation implementation plan.

2. Support the identification of a qualified data survey firm (Approximately 2 days): will support the CO to recruit and contract the data survey firm required to complete data collection and entry activities. This includes:

• Draft/Adapt TOR for data survey firm
• Review technical and financial proposals
• Provide recommendations on a preferred firm

3. Guide the survey firm in the development of questionnaires (Approximately 7-8 days): The Impact Evaluation Specialist will guide the selected data survey firm in developing questionnaires for impact evaluation. The target respondents will include individuals, households, communities, including ethnic minorities, and government and non-government stakeholders. The use of tablets, GPS coordinates, and other advanced methods should be incorporated as much as possible for accurate and high quality data collection. Other tasks will include:

• Reviewing Questionnaire templates and adapting them to the country specific context
• Participating in questionnaire pretesting
• Review questionnaire with advisory panel
• Finalize questionnaire based on feedback from pilots and advisory panel

4. Develop research protocol (Approximately 4 days): The Impact Evaluation Specialist will collaborate with the Survey Firm(s) to identify all requirements for ethical clearance of the impact evaluation activities. In addition, the Impact Evaluation specialist will lead development of the research protocol, which will include:

• Overview of methodology, data collection and analysis plan
• Overview of measures taken for the protection of human subjects, including informed consent and respondent confidentiality, with due attention to gender and ethnic minorities
• Assessment of respondent risks and benefits

5. Finalize the sampling plan (Approximately 4 days): The Impact Evaluation Specialist will work with the data survey firm to define the sample sizes required to estimate program impacts, as well as the sampling strategy. This will include:

• The outcome indicator(s) that are used to determine the sample size(s), with due attention to gender and ethnic minorities.
• The minimum impacts that the study should be designed to measure
• The number of communities in each of the control and treatment groups
• The number of households and individuals in each community; and (if relevant) the number of repeat visits before and after the interventions
• Definition of the sample inclusion criteria
• Definition of central or field-based sampling methodology in collaboration with the Survey Firm(s)

6. Oversee impact evaluation preparation and data collection activities (Approximately 18 days): The Impact Evaluation Specialist will oversee all activities related to preparation and implementation of the impact evaluation, including:

• Developing the Field Work Plan with the Survey Firm(s)
• Interviewer recruiting and training
• Pilot testing with field team(s)
• Review of Survey Firm progress reports
• Review of any required secondary data (e.g., market reports, community surveys, etc.)

7. Validation of evaluation design after the baseline survey (Approximately 8 days): The Impact Evaluation Specialist, jointly with the survey firm, is responsible for cleaning and analyzing the baseline data in order to validate the evaluation design and verify the quality of data produced. This will be done by jointly producing, with the survey firm, a report analyzing the data collection process and assessment of the quality of the baseline data, including an analysis of means of baseline parameters between the treatment and control groups.

8. Designing and guiding a coherent periodic survey in line with M&E framework (Approximately 7-8 days): The Impact Evaluation Specialist is responsible for developing a periodic survey instrument as part of M&E framework, train local stakeholders and oversee the data collection: The project will undertake periodic data collection between the baseline and endline survey to complement the two large-scale surveys and M&E establishment. The Impact Evaluation specialist is responsible for developing a survey instrument for periodic surveys to be administered by project/government personnel. The task will include:

• Review and propose M&E framework integrating IE periodic survey
• The development of a small, periodic survey instrument to complement the two large-scale surveys
• The development of a simple data entry format
• Train project/government personnel responsible for M&E, data collection and data entry
• Oversee the initial data collection process

Competencies

Procurement Notice with enclosed TOR and evaluation criteria as well as Submission forms are in the attached files and uploaded on:

https://procurement-notices.undp.org/view_notice.cfm?notice_id=80429

Required Skills and Experience

The qualification requirements for the consultant team is as follows:

No.

Requirement

Points

1

Academic background of consultant: have postgraduate degree or higher in Economics, environmental economics, development economics or other closely related field of study

200

2

Relevant work experience and knowledge in design of Impact evaluation

300

3

Prior experience of working in Vietnam or similar countries or region

100

4

Proven experience in writing professional reports/project documents in English related to project impact evaluation or related with submission of 2 similar sample reports

400

Total

1,000