International consultant to provide technical support to the Government of Kazakhstan in improving its evidence-based fiscal and social policies by developing a tax-benefit microsimulation m

Contract

This is a Consultancy contract. More about Consultancy contracts.

Duration: from 16 October 2023 to 29 February 2024 (50 working days) Workplace: remote-based with in-country travel

UNICEF works in some of the world’s toughest places, to reach the world’s most disadvantaged children. To save their lives. To defend their rights. To help them fulfill their potential. Across 190 countries and territories, we work for every child, everywhere, every day, to build a better world for everyone. And we never give up. For every child, a fair chance

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Background Evidence-based fiscal_social policies consultant.docx

Purpose of Activity/Assignment

The overall purpose of this assignment is to provide technical support to the Government of Kazakhstan in widening the evidence base for strengthening fiscal and social policies by building a tax-benefit microsimulation model. The specific objectives of the assignment include the following: • Development of a tax-benefit microsimulation model based on EUROMOD platform (https://euromod-web.jrc.ec.europa.eu/) • Deliver high-quality analysis that investigates the effects of the current cash transfer programs and the current tax system in the country on poor households and members of various vulnerable groups (children, disabled, unemployed, single parents, etc.) • Simulate the impacts of policy changes (based on options agreed with UNICEF) - real and potential - using the developed model • Analyze the results of the simulations and provide recommendations for evidence-based policy improvement

Scope of Work

Under overall guidance of Social Policy officer, the consultant will support the implementation of the following components: 1. Inception and Adaptation of EUROMOD Model: • Collect with UNICEF support and analyze data and information on social protection and tax systems including legislation, policy and strategy documents, action plans, evaluations, etc. • Review existing data sources, surveys, and administrative databases related to taxation, social benefits, and demographics. • Review the EUROMOD model6 and adapt it to the context of Kazakhstan. This includes incorporating country-specific parameters, policies, and variables that influence the well-being of children and families. 2. Data Collection and Preparation: • Access with UNICEF support required household budget survey data as well as other necessary statistical and administrative data. • Clean, process, and harmonize datasets for integration into the model. • Ensure data privacy and security measures are followed throughout the process. 3. Model Development and Calibration: • Build a tax-benefit microsimulation model tailored to the Kazakh context • Calibrate the model using historical data to ensure its accuracy and reliability. • Validate the model's outputs against real-world data and outcomes. • Fine-tune parameters to enhance the model's predictive capabilities. 4. Policy Simulations: As part of this effort, the consultant is tasked with using the tax-benefit microsimulation model to simulate at least the following two key scenarios: 4A. Universal Child Grants Scenario: • Assess the potential impact of introducing a Universal Child grants (UCG) as a replacement for all current family and child benefits, including targeted social assistance for families with children, on: a) Income distribution among families with children. b) Poverty reduction and social equity. c) Government expenditure and fiscal sustainability. d) Incentives for employment and labor force participation among parents. 4B. Progressive Individual Income Tax Scale Scenario: • Analyze the implications of introducing a progressive scale for individual income tax, which aims to create a fairer tax system while maintaining revenue adequacy and assess its potential effects on: a) Tax revenue collection and distribution. b) Income inequality and progressivity. c) Government revenue and budgetary implications. d) Behavioral responses, such as workforce participation and tax compliance. 5. Capacity Building: • Train government officials and analysts on how to use and interpret the microsimulation model. • Provide workshops or training sessions on the technical aspects of the model and its outputs. 6. Reporting and Recommendations: • Prepare comprehensive reports and policy brief summarizing the model development process, data analysis, and policy simulation results. • Provide evidence-based recommendations for improving fiscal and social policies based on simulation outcomes. • Present findings and recommendations to the national stakeholders and partners 7. Stakeholder Engagement: • Consult relevant government ministries, agencies, and international organizations involved in policy formulation on simulation purpose, design, scenarios, and process • Engage with stakeholders to ensure that the model aligns with policy objectives and meets their analytical needs.

The Consultant’s performance will be evaluated against the following criteria: timeliness, responsibility, initiative, communication, and quality and accuracy of the products delivered.

Work Assignment Overview Evidence-based fiscal_social policies consultant.docx

To qualify as an advocate for every child you will have… • An advanced university degree (Master's or Ph.D.) in economics, public policy, applied mathematics, statistics, or a related field. • Experience: At least 5-7 years of relevant professional experience in the following areas: - Developing tax-benefit microsimulation models and/or - Conducting policy analysis and impact assessments and/or - Working on evidence-based fiscal and social policies in a government or international organization context. • Technical competencies: - Microsimulation Modeling: Demonstrated expertise in designing, developing, and calibrating tax-benefit microsimulation models. This includes knowledge of various modeling approaches, data requirements, parameter estimation, and validation techniques. - Fiscal and Social Policies: A deep understanding of fiscal policy, social safety nets, and benefit programs in the context of Kazakhstan or similar economies. Familiarity with policy issues related to income distribution, poverty reduction, and social inclusion. - Data Analysis: Proficiency in handling large datasets, cleaning and processing data, and performing complex data analysis. Knowledge of statistical software (e.g., R, Python) and data manipulation tools. - Economic and Policy Analysis: Ability to conduct rigorous economic and policy analysis, including impact assessments of proposed tax and benefit policy changes. Understanding of distributional analysis and how policy changes affect different population groups. - Programming Skills: Strong programming skills in relevant languages to develop and implement microsimulation models. Ability to work with data integration and manipulation libraries. - Quantitative Methods: Proficiency in quantitative research methods, econometrics, and statistical techniques used in policy analysis. Capability to apply these methods to model development and data analysis. - Policy Formulation: Familiarity with the policy formulation process, including stakeholder engagement, policy design, and implementation considerations. Ability to provide evidence-based recommendations for policy improvements. - Communication Skills: Excellent written and verbal communication skills to convey complex technical concepts to non-technical stakeholders. Ability to present findings and policy recommendations effectively. Fluency in verbal and written English; Knowledge of Kazakh and/or Russian is an asset. - Collaboration and Capacity Building: Strong interpersonal skills and the ability to collaborate with diverse teams, including government officials, analysts, and other stakeholders. Experience in providing training or capacity-building workshops is a plus.

For every Child, you demonstrate… UNICEF’s core values of Care, Respect, Integrity, Trust, Accountability and Sustainability (https://www.unicef.org/about/unicef-culture)

Evaluation Criteria The quality of technical proposal will be evaluated in accordance with the award criteria and the associated weighting as detailed below. The main approach is the combining both technical (maximum 70 score) and financial scores (maximum 30 scores) in calculating overall score for identifying a winner in selection process. A two-stage procedure shall be utilised in evaluating applied candidates, where technical evaluation, including assessment of: technical competencies (portfolio review), past performance, and technical proposal, will be completed prior to any financial proposal being reviewed and compared. The Cumulative Analysis Method (weight combined score method) will be used for evaluation and selection in this process.

A. TECHNICAL EVALUATION (max. 100 points): weight 70 % 1. Assessment of technical competencies (Portfolio Review) = 40 points Evaluation of the candidate's technical skills in: • Microsimulation Modeling • Fiscal and Social Policies • Data Analysis • Economic and Policy Analysis • Programming Skills • Quantitative Methods • Policy Formulation 2. Past performance = 20 points Quality of previous studies/reports (2 items as a minimum) provided in English 3. Technical Proposal = 40 points Candidates will be required to submit a technical proposal that outlines their proposed methodology and timeline for the assignment. This proposal will be evaluated based on its content, clarity, and alignment with the objectives, tasks, and deliverables specified in the TOR.

B. FINANCIAL CRITERIA (max. 100 points): weight 30 % Candidates must submit a financial proposal for the whole assignment based on these Terms of Reference. The financial proposal should clearly state the cost of the services for each Deliverables/Outputs as well as travel costs. Only financial proposals that fully cover all deliverables outlined in the terms of reference will be considered. Overall assessment will be made combining both technical and financial scores as per their weights.

Application requirement The consultancy is open to individual international applicants. Applicants are required to provide: - A short cover letter, highlighting relevant experience with similar type of assignments (max 300 words). - CV of the individual applicants - Financial proposal including number of days for undertaking the assignment, daily fee, travel costs. Travel costs will be pre-approved by UNICEF as per the UNICEF rules and regulations for travel for consultants i.e., irrespective of the distance and duration of the flight, most direct and economy flight ticket shall apply. - Samples or links to at least 2 related pieces of work previously conducted by the consultant, must be provided in English. - A technical proposal with a clear methodology, tentative workplan and timeframe

The financial proposal should include all possible costs related to the implementation of the tasks under the present TOR including international, inter-city and in-city travel expenses and DSA. UNICEF does not provide or arrange health insurance coverage. The financial proposal must be submitted in a separate file of non-editable format (e.g. PDF). Consultancy fees should be broken down to show the details for the below-mentioned deliverables. In case the bidder is a resident of Kazakhstan, please indicate VAT amount separately in your Financial Offer or clearly state if you are non-VAT payer.

The shortlisted applicants will be contacted by UNICEF with a technical discussion and interview. Interested candidates should submit the following documents through the link: https://www.unicef.org/careers/

Remarks: • UNICEF will only make milestone payment based on achievement of specific deliverables. Also note that UNICEF does not make advance payment and UNICEF is exempted from paying VAT and any other form of taxes. Three payments will be made based on the deliverables. First payment (30%) will be made against deliverables under task 1 “Inception and Adaptation of EUROMOD Model” and task 2 “Data Collection and Preparation”. Second payment (40%) will be made against deliverables under task 3 “Model Development and Calibration”, task 4 “Policy Simulations” and task 5 “Capacity Building”. Third payment (30%) will be made against deliverables under task 6 “Reporting and Recommendations” and task 7 “Stakeholder Engagement”. Payment of professional fees will be based on the submission of agreed deliverables. UNICEF reserves the right to terminate the contract or withhold all or a portion of payment if performance is unsatisfactory or if work/outputs are incomplete, not delivered, or for failure to meet deadlines (fees reduced due to late submission: 20 days – 10%; 1 month-20%; 2 months-50%; more 2 months – payment withhold). • Completion of the UN/UNICEF mandatory trainings is obligatory upon commencement of the contract. • Only shortlisted candidates will be contacted and advance to the next stage of the selection process. • All materials developed will remain the copyright of UNICEF and UNICEF will be free to adapt and modify them in the future. • The Consultant will perform his/her duties in line with UNICEF standards and procedures. • Individuals engaged under a consultancy contract will not be considered “staff members” under the Staff Regulations and Rules of the United Nations and UNICEF’s policies and procedures, and will not be entitled to benefits provided therein (such as leave entitlements and medical insurance coverage). Their conditions of service will be governed by their contract and the General Conditions of Contracts for the Services of Consultants. Consultants are responsible for determining their tax liabilities and for the payment of any taxes and/or duties, in accordance with local or other applicable laws. • Payment of professional fees will be based on submission of agreed deliverables. UNICEF reserves the right to withhold payment in case the deliverables submitted are not up to the required standard or in case of delays in submitting the deliverables on the part of the consultant • The selected candidate is solely responsible to ensure that the visa (applicable) and health insurance required to perform the duties of the contract are valid for the entire period of the contract. Selected candidates are subject to confirmation of fully-vaccinated status against SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) with a World Health Organization (WHO)-endorsed vaccine, which must be met prior to taking up the assignment. It does not apply to consultants who will work remotely and are not expected to work on or visit UNICEF premises, programme delivery locations or directly interact with communities UNICEF works with, nor to travel to perform functions for UNICEF for the duration of their consultancy contracts. • UNICEF is here to serve the world’s most disadvantaged children and our global workforce must reflect the diversity of those children. The UNICEF family is committed to include everyone, irrespective of their race/ethnicity, age, disability, gender identity, sexual orientation, religion, nationality, socio-economic background, or any other personal characteristic. • UNICEF offers reasonable accommodation for consultants contractors with disabilities. This may include, for example, accessible software, travel assistance for missions or personal attendants. We encourage you to disclose your disability during your application in case you need reasonable accommodation during the selection process and afterwards in your assignment. • UNICEF has a zero-tolerance policy on conduct that is incompatible with the aims and objectives of the United Nations and UNICEF, including sexual exploitation and abuse, sexual harassment, abuse of authority and discrimination. UNICEF also adheres to strict child safeguarding principles. All selected candidates will be expected to adhere to these standards and principles and will therefore undergo rigorous reference and background checks. Background checks will include the verification of academic credential(s) and employment history. Selected candidates may be required to provide additional information to conduct a background check.