Technical Advisor (Small Area Estimation)

JOB TITLE: Technical Advisor (Small Area Estimation) TYPE OF CONTRACT: International consultant (WAE, when-actually-employed) UNIT/DIVISION: Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit, WFP Country Office Indonesia DUTY STATION (City, Country): Remote, home-based assignment (no travel required) DURATION: 30 working days, starting 1 June 2023 to 31 August 2023 ________________________________________ Background & Context: The demand for small area statistics has significantly increased in Indonesia. Data disaggregation for sub-national and sub-population groups (administrative areas, gender, age groups, and others) is required to support development planning, monitoring, and evaluation processes at the national level, such as the National Medium Term Development Plan (RPJMN) and Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) indicators, as well as at the sub-national level, such as the Regional Medium Term Development Plan (RPJMD) indicators. The national statistics agency – Statistics Indonesia (BPS) – as the producer of national official statistics, aims to collect quality, up-to-date, and sustainable data, including the National Socio-Economic Survey (SUSENAS). However, as is usual for national sample surveys internationally, SUSENAS has limitations for providing reliable indicators at lower administrative levels because the direct estimation of SUSENAS-derived indicators is only feasible and reliable at the district level. To overcome the issue, BPS, particularly the Directorate of Social Welfare Statistics, has been developing small area estimation (SAE) models to improve the accuracy of direct estimations through statistical modelling. Furthermore, the SAE method has been used to generate data for the Food Security and Vulnerability Atlas (FSVA) and SDG indicators.

To improve the reliability of the SAE methodology, World Food Programme (WFP) Indonesia, in partnership and consultation with BPS and Politeknik Statistika (STIS), engaged an international expert in 2022-2023 to review the SAE methodology for the FSVA and SDG indicators. The international consultant produced the SAE methodology review report (hereafter, ‘SAE report’), which was validated by BPS and STIS in March 2023 and is currently being translated to Bahasa Indonesian for final dissemination with BPS, STIS and other government partners, e.g., National Food Agency (NFA) and Ministry of National Development Planning / National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas), and other stakeholders, including fellow UN agencies and members of the UN data, monitoring, evaluation and learning (DMEL) working group. As a next step, based on the Government request, WFP seeks to contract an additional expertise to: (a) lead and facilitate technical discussions with the Government, academia and development partners and stakeholders on the SAE report findings and recommendations; (b) develop/design a detailed plan for the feasibility/implementation phase of SAE (based on available data and in line with the SAE report recommendations and subsequent consultations with BPS, STIS and other stakeholders), and (c) support WFP in concept note/proposal development for resource mobilization. Objectives: The overall objective of this assignment is to provide expert guidance to WFP and Government of Indonesia to conceptualize and design the SAE feasibility/implementation phase.

Activities, deliverables, estimated number of working days and expected timeframe The list of activities and deliverables is provided below, together with the estimated number of working days for each activity/deliverable and expected timeframe. At the start of the assignment the timeframe will be reviewed and updated in line with government availability and requirements.

Activity

Deliverable

Estimated # of working days

Tentative Dates

1. Lead/facilitate additional technical discussions with stakeholders* on the SAE report findings and recommendations

• Presentation and dissemination of the SAE report

  5

  June

2. Consultative meetings with stakeholders on the design of SAE feasibility / implementation phase

• Consultation meetings with stakeholders, e.g., BPS, STIS, Bappenas, NFA, DMEL group

  10

  June

3. Develop/design a detailed plan for the SAE feasibility / implementation phase

• Design document for the SAE feasibility / implementation phase

  10

  June-July

4. Support concept note / proposal development for funding and resource mobilization as well as presentation to potential donors

• Concept note(s) or proposal(s) reviewed and/or developed

  • Presentations to potential donors

  5

  June-July

  Total

  30

  *Government stakeholders (NFA, Bappenas, STIS, and BPS) and development partners/UN agencies through the Data, Management, Evaluation, and Learning (DMEL) group

Qualification and Experience Required:

The candidate will be selected based on the following criteria: • A strong portfolio of previous academic research work related to the tasks outlined in this TOR • A demonstrated theoretical and practical background in mathematics and statistics at PhD level • At least 10 years’ postgraduate professional experience in statistics and small area estimation • Has the experience to provide research advice on small area estimation • Has in-depth knowledge of SAE in Indonesia would be advantageous.

Deadline of application submission: 11 May 2023.