MNG/IC/2022/INT/014 - International Consultant - Development of guidelines, methodologies, and tools for climate impact-based forecasting (IBF) and forecast-based financing (FBF)

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Application deadline 1 year ago: Friday 19 Aug 2022 at 23:59 UTC

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Contract

This is a International Consultant contract. More about International Consultant contracts.

Background

Mongolia is among the countries most impacted by climate change, due to its geographical location and livelihood of local communities associated with the pasture based livestock husbandry. Increased temperatures, coupled with decreased precipitation, has resulted in a drying trend impacting pastures and water sources. In respect of natural hazards the frequency and intensity of extreme events, including summer drought followed by harsh winters, cold waves related low temperatures, and higher snowfalls etc. Unsustainable herding practices and increase of livestock numbers, inconsistent with climate parameter fluctuation are leading to destabilization of income source of herding families, while further stressing increasingly fragile ecosystems.

The “Improving Adaptive Capacity and Risk Management of Rural Communities in Mongolia’’ project funded by the Green Climate Fund was launched in March 2021. The project will be implemented by the MET, the MoFALI and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) for 7 years in Dornod, Sukhbaatar, Zavkhan and Khovd aimags. The objective of the project is to strengthen the climate resilience of resource-dependent rural populations in the 4 targeted aimags by implementing feasible adaptation measures to preserve ecosystem services.

The project is expected to benefit an estimated 800,000 people (approximately 130,000 direct and 800,000 indirect beneficiaries), of whom 50% are women. To achieve the project goal, the following activities within the interrelated components will be implemented and the expected results will be reached which include:

Output 1: Climate information integrated into land and water use planning at national and sub-national levels;

Output 2: Climate-resilient water and soil management practices scaled-up for enhanced small-scale herder resource management;

Output 3: Herder capacity to access markets built for sustainably sourced, climate-resilient livestock products.

UNDP CO is seeking to hire an international consultant to lead the work on development of guidelines and methodologies and tools for IBF( Impact based forecasting) and FBF( Forecast based Financing ) to support the process of climate informed planning process at national and local levels. Local consultants team will be working closely with the International consultant.

Key stakeholders of the assignment are: MET, MoFALI, UNDP, relevant Government agencies and NGOs at the national and project’s aimag and soum levels, and Project Implementation Unit (PIU).

UNDP is seeking to cooperate with a team of consultants in financial planning, budgeting, climate modeling, and risk management to develop Impact based forecasting and Forecast based Budgeting

Duties and Responsibilities

The purpose of this consultancy service is to develop guidelines, methodologies, and tools for climate impact-based forecasting (IBF) and forecast-based financing (FBF) and to support the Government to adopt the newly developed guidelines, methodologies, and tools in the mid-term planning at the national and aimag levels.

  1. Scope of work

  2. Desk-review and assess the existing methodologies, guidelines in place for anticipated climate conditions and associated climate impact for a certain timeframe (particularly mid-term but short-term concrete action and long-term vision need to be highlighted):

  • Carry out an assessment of the coherence of climate change, risk and vulnerability, and adaptation information in current methodologies for developing long-term development planning at the national and aimag levels based on available data;
  • Carry out an assessment of the improved data collection, processing, and forecasting ability, coupled with local specific information, such as vulnerability assessments and related risks, and livelihood features, with a focus on a quantitative approach to impact and risk;
  • Conduct numerical case studies on previous extreme and climate events to understand mechanisms and assess impact, vulnerability, and exposure in order to develop guideline and methodology;
  • Define partnerships, risk communications, impact information, and methodology analysis, and clear structure hazard information, taking into account who, what, when, where and which impact;
    • Create a database of impact, vulnerability, and exposure using statistic data and information and geographical information systems (GISs).
  1. Develop a guideline, methodology and tools for climate impact-based forecasting (IBF) based on all gathered information and support the Government to adopt the newly developed guidelines, methodologies and tools in mid-term planning at the national and aimag levels:
    • Based on the assessment results, develop a methodology, guideline and tools for FBF and IBF and recommendations on how to develop plans in consistency with climate change, risks and vulnerabilities, and adaptive features;
    • Assist in the adjustment of the methodology on Impact based forecasting (IBF), supported by the WMO to local circumstances, including the development of the operational impact models for water availability, pasture yield/fodder, and dzuds taking account of the findings of other studies;
    • Propose a strategy to streamline the climate-related forecast-based financing scheme into existing financial and public budgeting regulatory mechanisms at the national and aimag levels based on best practices and lessons learned from the pilot project on forecast-based Financing for Vulnerable Herders in Mongolia, which was developed and implemented by the IFRC as a FBF module for dzud with additional related cost-benefit analyses;
    • Support and advise (as needed) to the Ministry of Economy and Development (MoED), Ministry of Environment and Tourism (MET), Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Light Industry (MoFALI) in the development of long-term policy and budget planning, incorporating climate risk and vulnerability management and related adaptation activities with financial implication;
    • Incorporate Impact Based Forecasting (IBF) and forecast-based financing (FBF) into the national budget planning scheme streamlining it with the Green financing policy;
    • Provide support to the MET in incorporating the climate-informed decision-making principle into the climate change legislation draft;
    • Facilitate consultations among partners, including the Ministry of Economy and Development and Ministry of Finance, on the implementation process of climate-informed planning mechanisms;
    • Present to the MET and MoFALI the developed methodologies, guidelines, and recommendations for mid-term development planning at the national and aimag levels in response to climate change, risks, and vulnerabilities for their endorsement.
    • Discuss proposals and recommendations with MET, MoFALI, UNDP, PIU, and relevant project stakeholders and incorporate them into reports.
  2. Capacity building trainings to be organized for the government staffs on climate-resilient planning (FBF and IBF methodologies and tools) and submit a final report to the MET and PIU:
  • Provide support/advice for capacity building to MET and PIU as needed;
  • Conduct training IBF and warming services including general concepts, user engagement, products and services, and delivery;
  • Develop training materials and guidelines for training exercises, with a primary focus on preparedness, especially in the areas of policy coordination, response planning, monitoring sectoral work, information sharing, and resource mobilization. For active dialogue on this issue can be used certain tested experiences of the Humanitarian Country Team, for instance, flexible funding, contingency plans, the trigger of action, and an enabling environment;
  • Advice on tracking the progress of project implementation in response to climate change adaptation, risks, and vulnerability management;
  • Finalize the report and compile it for the consolidated report, which should be prepared on IBF and FBF and submitted to the MET and PIU in English.

Competencies

Skills

  • Excellent communication, articulation, and coordination skills;
  • Excellent verbal and written skills in English;
  • Ability to understand different interests and seek conciliation and coordination of activities;
  • Ability to build informal networks internally and externally and visualize them as part of the value creation process;
  • Ability to demonstrate behaviors such as teamwork, knowledge sharing, and relationship maintenance;
  • Ability to encourage collaboration and improve performance;
  • Ability to work under pressure and deliver high-quality results on time is required.

Required Skills and Experience

Education and Professional Experience:

  • Advanced education in development policy planning, environmental science and management, climate studies and management (Master's degree or higher)

  • At least 6 years of experience in national and/or local level development policy development and planning with a strong financing background;

  • At least 3 years of experience working with the national and local authorities on climate change and related fields;

  • Experience in analyzing information and data on climate, environment, and agriculture is preferred;
  • Experience working on UN-funded projects and programs is desired;
  • In-depth knowledge of national plans, strategies, and policies related to climate change in countries similar to Mongolia.
Added 1 year ago - Updated 1 year ago - Source: jobs.undp.org