International Individual Consultant: Demographer/Statistical Expert for Developing the Population Projections

UNFPA - United Nations Population Fund

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Application deadline in 3 days: Tuesday 18 Jun 2024 at 23:59 UTC

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Demographer/Statistical Expert for developing the population projections in Small areas (Province, District & Administrative Posts)

Purpose of consultancy:

The Government of Mozambique is committed to developing evidence-based policies and programs that address the needs of its growing population. Accurate and up-to-date population projections at the district level are crucial for informing these efforts. The district administrative levels are the planning units in the Mozambique planning policy strategy. This spatial granularity is of great interest for governmental organisations, policymakers, planners, and program implementers to identify the potential perspective of socio-demographic development as a foundation for local action plans. As these interest groups need to gauge the future demand in fields such as health, education, food, water, energy, infrastructure, and labour market on a yearly basis, it is essential to create regional and local population projections. Demography explores the change in the size and structures of a population. Fundamental dimensions like age and sex, recorded universally in population registers, surveys, and censuses, form the basis for understanding population change. Fertility, mortality, and migration, the main components of population change, vary by age and sex. National statistical offices use methods such as the cohort components model for population projections. In 2019, the National Statistics Institute (INE) developed population projections at the provincial level (ADM-1) based on the 2017 Population Census. The data is available at INE Population Projections 2017. It is also critical to analyze the level of convergence in demographic indicators between districts, and Administrative-post levels. This knowledge can serve as a foundation for evaluating the degree of convergence in demographic indicators and inform projections of future sub-national trajectories. Develop future scenarios including the 'Trend' scenario at the district level by extrapolating past trends in components of population change, focusing on the level of convergence between districts. INE has developed the population projections at the provincial levels in 2019 based on the census 2017 data. The proportional disaggregation was made at the district level for each province. The detailed methodology as well as the assumptions were not available. Since 2017, several new data sources have been made available, such as the new Mozambique Demographic & Health Survey 2022-23, and Household Budget Family Survey 2022. Further, the country has also faced significant internal displacement, particularly in the northern provinces. UNFPA has also recently received several data requests related to the population estimates at the admin level 3 (posto-administration). Therefore, the current assignment is conceived with two border objectives: 1) to update the population projections using the latest data, and 2) to extend the population projections at the posto-administrative level using the reliable and robust statistics methods (small areas estimates).

The following are this consultancy's objectives:

  • To develop a comprehensive methodology for generating provincial-level population projections in Mozambique according to different scenarios, considering the latest demographic trends and data sources.
  • To produce high-quality population projections for all districts and Posto Admin (admin 3) in Mozambique, disaggregated by age, and sex, for a time horizon of at least 30 years.
  • To document the methodology and assumptions used in the projections, and to provide clear and concise interpretations of the results.
  • To build the capacity of national and local stakeholders to understand and use the population projections for evidence-based decision-making

Scope of work: (Description of services, activities, or outputs):

This consultancy aims to engage a qualified Demographer to develop population projections at Provincial, district (ADM-2) and administrative post (ADM-3) level in Mozambique, using the latest available data and methodologies. The projections will be disaggregated by age, and sex, and will cover a time horizon of at least 30 years. Provincial population projections will be done using the cohort component methods according to different scenarios by fertility, mortality, and migration. Gather knowledge on each component of population change, including fertility, sex ratio at birth, mortality, internal migration, international migration, and absentee population. Analyze impacts on components of population change, considering social, economic, political, and environmental factors. Identify sources of population heterogeneity through literature review and data analysis, using data from the census, surveys (DHS), and government sources (for migration and births). District level projections will be done using the cohort component model, while the administrative-post level includes iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) or cohort change ratio based (HAMILTON-PERRY) method. This process begins with analysing population dynamics at the district level for the period 2007-2017, followed by scenario projections spanning from 2017 to 2047. Additionally, the model will incorporate the population movement/displacement particularly in the Northern part of the country. The primary responsibilities encompass conducting estimations using various methods such as calculating rates, setting up regression analysis, smoothing patterns, and analyzing historical trends and forces influencing population change components. Comprehensive demographic estimates, including age and sex breakdowns (e.g., population structure, fertility rates, sex-specific life tables, migration numbers, and rates), will be produced at the district level. Subsequently, the results of the analysis will guide the application of mixed methods, potentially using the cohort change ratio based (HAMILTON-PERRY) method, at the administrative post level. If necessary, the initiative allows for generating innovative methods to address specific requirements. The construction of CCRs requires only data by age and sex, from two successive population counts to implement, which is usually available at the postadministrative level from census counts. Once constructed, CCRs provide the input for what is known as the “Hamilton–Perry Method” (HP) for projecting population.

The consultant will be responsible for the following tasks:

  • Review existing literature and data sources on population dynamics in Mozambique, including national censuses, demographic surveys, and administrative data.
  • Assess the quality and limitations of available data sources.
  • Select and apply appropriate demographic models and methods for generating population projections at the district and administrative-post level
  • Develop a set of assumptions about future trends in fertility, mortality, and migration, based on available evidence and expert judgement.
  • Produce population projections for all district and administrative-post levels. in Mozambique, disaggregated by age and sex, for a time horizon of at least 30 years.
  • Document the methodology and assumptions used in the projections, including a detailed description of the data sources, models, and methods employed.
  • Prepare a report that presents the results of the projections, including clear and concise interpretations of the findings.
  • Conduct a workshop to present the findings to national and local stakeholders, and to build their capacity to understand and use the population projections for evidence-based decision-making.

Duration and working schedule:

The assignment should be completed in 45 working days spread from 1 June 2024 to 30th November 2024. a. The Inception report includes the expanded details on the data sources, methodologies, and coordination with national stakeholders. b. Technical meeting with INE and other stakeholders on the methodologies, and assumptions. c. Held the validation meeting of the population projections as well as hold a one-week capacity building workshop. d. Consultant will also provide the clean codes in the statistical programs (R/STATA) for the replication of the results and capacity building. e. Final report and a short brief. f. Report card on the key messages for the population dynamics in future in Mozambique with the help of the communication team.

Place where services are to be delivered:

The consultant will work remotely and will have close coordination with the UNFPA technical team.

Delivery dates and how work will be delivered (e.g. electronic, hard copy etc.):

All material will be submitted to UNFPA in soft/electronic form.

Monitoring and progress control, including reporting requirements, periodicity format and deadline:

The consultant will report to the Population & Development Technical Specialist, UNFPA, and technical staff will ensure quality and standards before release of payment.

Deliverables and payment schedule:

The key deliverables and payment schedule are as follows:

  1. A comprehensive report on the methodology and assumptions used in the population projections.
  2. A set of population projections by age-sex at the provincial level according to different assumptions for fertility, mortality, and migration.
  3. A set of population projections for all districts (admin-2) and Postoadministrative level (admin-3) in Mozambique, disaggregated by age, and sex.
  4. A final report and held a workshop to build the capacity of national and local stakeholders to understand and use the population projections for evidence-based decision-making.

Supervisory arrangements:

The consultant will report to Technical Specialist – Population & Development, UNFPA

Expected travel:

Expected travel to Maputo, Mozambique

Required expertise, qualifications and competencies, including language requirements:

● Master’s degree or higher in Demography, Statistics and social science or a relevant combination of education. PhD will be an added advantage.

● Minimum 10 years of professional experience in developing population projections, small areas estimation and statistical demography.

● Experience in the field of estimation of fertility, mortality and migration as well as data analysis of sample surveys (DHS and MICS) and population projections at the small areas.

● Excellent programming skills in STATA/R statistical programs

● Knowledge of data landscape, population dynamics in developing countries particularly in Mozambique.

● Experience in developing population projections at the sub-national level, preferably in Asia/Africa.

● Proven ability to work effectively with government officials.

● Languages: Fluency in oral and written English, basic knowledge of Portuguese is preferable.

● Excellent interpersonal and general communication skills.

Inputs / services to be provided by UNFPA or implementing partner (e.g support services, office space, equipment), if applicable:

The consultant is expected to use his/her own laptop or any other equipment if required.

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