International Consultant on Forecasting Systems for Floods, Landslides, Mudflow, Droughts, Severe Strong Winds, Hailstorms and Avalanches

Contract

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Background

Due to the diverse and complex terrain of the Caucasus mountains, its significant influence and the influence of the Black Sea and Caspian Sea on the climate and weather of the region, Georgia is exposed to various climate-induced hazards including floods and flash floods, climate-induced geological hazards (including landslide and mudflow), droughts, strong winds, hailstorms and snow avalanches. Furthermore, according to Georgia’s the 2nd and the 3rd National Communications, the frequency, intensity and geographical spread of extreme hydro meteorological hazards will increase under climate change and may result in significant impacts on key sectors including agriculture, critical infrastructure (transportation networks, buildings, roads, water supply, energy installations), natural resources and eco-systems, glaciers and forests.

To address the existing development challenges, UNDP Georgia implements a program aimed at reducing exposure of Georgia’s communities, livelihoods and infrastructure to climate-induced natural hazards through a well-functioning nation-wide multi-hazard early warning system and risk-informed local action. The program is intended to provide to the Government of Georgia critical climate risk information that would enable implementation of nation-wide transformative policies and actions for reducing exposure and vulnerability of the population to climate-induced hazards, thus catalysing a paradigm shift in the national climate risk management, climate-proofed disaster risk reduction and early warning approaches.

The program encompasses three interrelated projects funded by Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) and Global Climate Fund (GCF) and Swedish Government (SIDA).

The GCF funded interventions target expansion of hydro-meteorological and agrometeorological network, introduction of methods and tools for gender sensitive vulnerability assessment, establishment of a centralized multi-hazard disaster risk information and knowledge system, enhancement of multi-hazard forecasting and modelling capacities and improving community resilience through implementation of early warning system (EWS) & risk reduction measures.

SIDA project contributes to the public awareness raising and structural measure components.

The project funded by SDC aims at reducing exposure and vulnerability of communities in Georgia, through development of multi-hazard risk information and relevant capacities.

Geographical coverage of the program intervention is nation-wide, covering the 11 major river basins of Georgia: Enguri, Rioni, Chorokhi-Adjaristskali, Supsa, Natanebi, Khobi, Kintrishi, Khrami-Ktsia, Alazani, Iori, Mtkvari (same as Kura). The program focuses on the following hazards: floods, landslides, mudflows, avalanches, hailstorms, windstorms and droughts.

The program is implemented in close partnership with the Ministry of Environmental Protection and Agriculture of Georgia(MEPA) through its subordinated agencies. The legal entity of public law – National Environmental Agency (NEA) under the MEPA is responsible for monitoring of hydro meteorological and geological processes, including monitoring of climate induced natural hazards, forecasting, research, and analysis. Within its mandate NEA produces short, medium and long-term weather and climate driven hazard forecasts.

However, there is no definitive methodologies and well-established systems for monitoring and forecasting of hydrological and geological hazards on national level. Existing capabilities at NEA are limited to forecast hazards with high precision and accuracy. Actual regulatory and institutional setup needs farther adjustment to enable fulfilment of multi-hazard early warning system.

Thus, the program through the GCF project provides NEA with required international expertise to support the enhancement of hazard monitoring, forecasting and early warning capacities. The ultimate goal of the activity is to ensure the operational multi-hazard forecasting systems for 11 river basins of Georgia and local capacities to sustain and expand the achieved results.

Duties and Responsibilities

The overall objective of the consultancy is to ensure that technical guidance and quality assurance are provided in the process of building forecasting and early warning platforms/systems for seven hazards on national level. For that international consultant on forecasting systems is expected to utilize the methodologies developed for hazard modelling and mapping within the SDC funded project and modify them to the level appropriate for hazard forecasting. In addition, the consultant will provide overall and day-to-day technical guidance/advice to NEA in realization of the proposed methodologies implying building of multi-hazard forecasting and early waring platforms for the 11 river basins of Georgia.

Duties and Responsibilities:

Namely, the international consultant will be responsible for undertaking the following tasks:

1. Assessing forecasting and early warning capacities of NEA through

• designing capacity development scorecards for evaluating individual and technical capacities for forecasting and early warning component
• conducting capacity assessment as per the developed scorecard

• preparing capacity development plan

  2.Adapting hazard models for forecasting and early warning purposes;

  3. Preparing designs of impact-based forecasting and early warning platforms/systems for each of the 7 hazards;

  4. Preparing design of impact-based multi-hazard forecasting and early warning system;

  5. Developing technical notes detailing the tasks to be undertaken by NEA based on the results of hazard mapping per each river basin for flood, mudflow, landslide and avalanches and also for hail, strong wind and drought being implemented on a country-wide scale;

  6. Providing technical day to day guidance, support and oversight for the development and implementation of forecasting and early warning platforms for all seven hazards;

  7. Providing technical guidance and ensuring quality control of the work undertaken by NEA, international meteorological expert and international experts working on drought, landslide, hail, wind and avalanche modelling for the purposes of operationalization of forecasting platforms/systems;

  8. Communicating with the project CTA to agree on the annual implementation plans related to the FEW platforms and report on progress;

  9. Participating/leading TAWG meetings on forecasting and early warning.

All documents shall be developed in English.

Payment modality and deliverables:

The payment will be made upon satisfactory completion/submission and approval of the deliverables by the supervisors.

First Year (1 October 2021 -31 December 2021)

100%- upon successful submission and approval of deliverables 1-4 (mid December 2021)

Second year (1 January 2022-31 December 2022)

50%- upon successful submission and approval of deliverables 1,2 (end of June 2022)

20%- upon successful submission and approval of deliverable 3 (mid October 2022)

30%-upon successful submission and approval of deliverables 4,5 (mid-December 2022)

Third year (1 January 2023-31 December 2023)

25%- upon successful submission and approval of deliverables 1 (mid-April 2023)

25%- upon successful submission and approval of deliverable 2 (mid-July 2023)

25%- upon successful submission and approval of deliverable 3 (mid- October2023)

25%- upon successful submission and approval of deliverables 4,5 ( mid-December 2023)

Fourth year (1 January 2024-31 December 2024)

25%- upon successful submission and approval of quarterly reports (mid-April, mid-July, mid-October, mid-December 2024)

Management Arrangements:

The international consultant will work under direct supervision of Team Leader and Project Coordinator. The Environment and Energy Team Leader will be engaged in overall supervision, while the Chief Technical Advisor will guide the consultant’s work and review and clear deliverables. The consultant will be directly responsible to, reporting to, seeking approval from, and obtaining certificate of acceptance of deliverables from the above-mentioned persons.

Competencies

Corporate competencies:

• Demonstrates integrity by modelling the UN’s values and ethical standards;

• Understanding of the mandate and the role of UNDP would be an asset;

• Promotes the vision, mission and strategic goals of UNDP;

• Displays cultural, gender, religion, race, nationality and age sensitivity and adaptability;
• Treats all people fairly without favouritism.

Functional competencies:

• Strong communication and analytical skills;
• Demonstrated skills in drafting reports;
• Ability to work under pressure with several tasks and various deadlines;
• Actively generates creative, practical approaches and solutions to overcome challenging situations;
• Excellent writing, presentation/public speaking skills;
• A pro-active approach to problem-solving;
• Computer literacy.

Leadership and Self-Management skills:

• Builds strong relationships with the working group and with the project partners; focuses on impact and results for the project partners and responds positively to feedback;
• Cooperates with working group effectively and demonstrates strong conflict resolution skills;
• Consistently approaches work with energy, positivity and a constructive attitude;
• Demonstrates strong influencing and facilitation skills;
• Remains calm, in control and good humoured under pressure;
• Demonstrates openness to change, new ideas and ability to manage ambiguity;
• Demonstrates strong oral and written communication skills;
• Demonstrates ability to transfer knowledge and competencies;
• Ability to work independently and hurdle competing priorities

Language Requirements

• Proficiency in both spoken and written English.

Required Skills and Experience

Education:

• Master’s degree in hydrometeorology, meteorology or any related field (minimum requirement) – 9 points

Experience:

• 5 years of professional experience in setting up hazard forecasting and early warning systems (minimum requirement)- 8 Points, More than 8 years – additional 2 points
• 5 years’ experience in hazard monitoring and modelling and forecasting (minimum requirement) – 6 Points, More than 5 years – additional 2 points
• 5 years’ experience in deploying and operationalization of hazard forecasting software 5 years (minimum requirement) –6 Points, More than 5 years – additional 2 points
• 2 assignments with the Lead role in establishment of forecasting and early warning systems (minimum requirement) -6 Points, More than 2 – additional 2 points
• Familiarity and/or experience in MHEWS (asset) – 4 Points
• Experience of working in Georgia and/or knowledge of the region’s context (asset) - 3 Points

Evaluation:

Offerors will be evaluated based on the cumulative analysis method, against combination of technical and financial criteria. Maximum total obtainable score is 100, out of which the total score for technical criteria (desk review and interview) equals to 70 and for financial criteria – to 30. Offerors that do not meet any of the Minimum Requirements will be automatically rejected, while the rest will form the long list. Technical evaluation will comprise of desk review and interview stages. Offerors who pass the 70% threshold, i. e. obtain minimum 35 points as a result of the desk review will be invited to the interview. Offerors passing 70% threshold as a result of the interview (i.e. obtain minimum of 14 points) will be recommended for financial evaluation.

Financial Proposal:

Lump sum contracts . The financial proposal shall specify a total lump sum amount, and payment terms around specific and measurable (qualitative and quantitative) deliverables (i.e. whether payments fall in instalments or upon completion of the entire contract). Payments are based upon output, i.e. upon delivery of the services specified in the ToR. In order to assist the requesting unit in the comparison of financial proposals, the financial proposal will include a breakdown of this lump sum amount. Maximum 30 points will be assigned to the lowest price offer. All other price offers will be scored using the formula (inverse proportion): Financial score X = 30* the lowest price offer/suggested price offer. All envisaged travel costs must be included in the financial proposal as well.