International Consultant for Social Policy simulations

Contract

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Background

Montenegro has a relatively strong, and recently reformed, social protection system, comprising non-contributory social assistance (such as: family material support, a child allowance, personal disability benefit, carer’s allowance and foster family benefit, etc) and contributory social insurance (including old age, survivor and disability pensions, health insurance and unemployment insurance). The Law on Social and Child Protection (2013) is the main legal framework for social services and social assistance in the country, with the Ministry of Labour and Social Welfare (MLSW) the main institution in charge. In addition, some forms of social assistance are the responsibility of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development – MARD (cash benefits for the elderly and payments in lieu of contributions to the pension system) and Ministry of Education (free text books, free meals for children attending pre-school education which come from families who receive social assistance), while in the context of a decentralised system of governance, at the municipality level, decisions are made to offer and deliver a range of forms of social services and social assistance (including one-off financial support). Hence, the implementation of social assistance and social services is the responsibility of Centres for Social Welfare, residential institutions, the MARD and the municipal governments for their own programmes.

Nonetheless, despite approximately 2% of GDP being spent on social assistance (World Bank 2013; ASPIRE database) social assistance is contributing to poverty reduction in the country by mere 7 percentage points and out of 14 types of benefits specified by the Law on Social and Child Protection, only 2 are means tested. According to the last available official data, poverty in Montenegro, using the relative poverty line set at 60% of the national median equivalized disposable income, stood at 23.8% in 2018; a 1.4 percentage point decline from 2013 (MONSTAT 2019). Poverty is strongly related to status in the labor market, with the highest poverty rates being for people who are unemployed (47.5% in 2018) and those who remain inactive (31%).

Further, the COVID-19 epidemic in Montenegro negatively affected poverty situation, as economic slowdown led to new social vulnerabilities and is likely to induce salary reduces and even layoffs, threatening to return poverty to 2015 or 2013 levels (World Bank, 2020). The impact of economic shock could potentially push 9,000 to 20,000 new citizens into poverty. A big portion of the new poor are currently not likely to be receiving any form of social protection benefits (World Bank, 2020). Therefore, social protection programmes should be better tailored and better targeted to meet the needs of different groups including children, people of working age and the elderly. In particular the effectiveness of means tested benefits’ reaching families and children living below poverty line could be significantly improved.

For people of working age, it is important that social protection promotes employment for those excluded from the labour market; with 48% of social assistance beneficiaries having the potential to be working (World Bank 2013). In the light of recent developments, it is also crucial to support return to work for the newly unemployed affected by the epidemic crisis in order to offset longer-term social and economic consequences. It is furthermore important to address the specific barriers that different groups, including women and Roma, face in accessing employment (EC 2018). There also need to be improved efforts to enhance social inclusion through social protection, including of particularly vulnerable groups such as Roma and people with disabilities (EC 2018).

The economic impact of COVID-19 imposed need for budget rebalances that are leading to budget cuts in social spending in 2020, whereas it will be crucial for the social protection system to be able to adequately respond to the crisis and protect those most vulnerable, ringfencing the expenditure and maximizing its effects.

The purpose of the consultancy:

UN support in the country in relation to social inclusion is geared toward ensuring that, by 2021, the population has improved access to quality, equitable, inclusive and mutually reinforcing systems of health, education, protection and decent work. To reach this goal, UN agencies and Government of Montenegro implement development interventions, i.e. joint programmes of agency-specific programmes.

The Joint Programme “Activate! Integrated Social Protection and Employment to Accelerate Progress for Young People in Montenegro” (JP Activate) represents the UNCT joint initiative to be implemented in Montenegro, funded by Joint SDG Fund, in order to accelerate the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The intervention is implemented jointly by UN Agencies : UNDP, UNICEF, UNHCR, IOM, ILO

One of the key goals of the JP is to enhance the capacities of the social protection system to better serve people in need, among others by deploying the, policy simulation tools, in order to improve targeting, expand coverage, and address adequacy of social protection. These tools will simulate policy impact to ensure effective social protection which, provided there is political commitment, could result in further reducing poverty rate.

It is not expected that the national statistics will be in position to capture the poverty level changes (in particular caused by COVID -19 outbreak) on time. As per the EU Statistics on Income and Living Condition (SILC) methodology, that is used by the National Statistics Office of Montenegro to capture poverty and social exclusion, the impact of COVID-19 will only be measurable in 2021.

In this context, the policy simulation exercise that is expected to be undertaken by the JP (under leadership of UNICEF Office in Montenegro) in the course of quarter four of 2020, using all available data sources, will need to take into account the changed circumstances in light of COVID-19.

The objective of the policy simulation exercise is twofold: to i) develop tools that enable more effective and better targeted social policies and measures planning and implementation and ii) design of the social policy options (e.g through the redistributive social policy scenario) based on simulations.

The key role of the consultant is to provide recommendations and expert advice in the process of designing simulation tool(s) and in the process of policy options design and to provide quality assurances of both - processes and outcomes.

Duties and Responsibilities

The overall consultancy work will be performed under the direct supervision of the UNDP Social Inclusion Team Leader, and in close cooperation with the UNICEF Social Policy Officer.

The consultant will cooperate with separately contracted legal entity (to be contracted by UNICEF) whose main tasks would be to develop policy simulation tools and to design of the social policy options. The consultant is expected to provide local context guidance, technical expertise, facilitate communication and cooperation with government and other counterparts, and provide overall quality assurance of the policy simulation/policy option design processes and outcomes.

The deliverables and deadlines have been aligned with UNICEF Office and close cooperation with UNICEF and UNICEF contracted legal entity is expected. As a guidance, in order to successfully meet the objectives of the assignment, several phases are envisaged.

Orientation phase:

Through the desk review and interviews with key interlocutors the Consultant should identify, review and analyze available poverty and social protection data quality and adequacy (official statistics, administrative data, researches and assesments), identify data required (available and missing) for running different policy simulation models that could be applied in Montenegro. In this regard based on the findings, the Consultant should provide experts advice/recommendations to both UNDP and UNICEF, as well as to the legal entity contracted by UNICEF who would be in charge of designing the policy simulation tools.

Inception phase:

In this phase, the consultant is expected to provide overview of the existing simulation models which have proven effective in the area of social policy/social assistance. Essential part of this stage is the understanding of data inputs required to run simulations and assess different models’ applicability to Montenegrin context, understanding the requirements in terms of feasibility of mainstreaming such tools in the public administration system in Montenegro.

Consultant’s responsibilities are as follows:

• Provide recommendations in the process of defining the scope of potential policy scenarios within available fiscal space and budget allocations and defining the model;
• Identify data gaps inputs to different available models and provide recommendations on the most effective methods to collect/generate missing data;
• Identify, assess and propose feasible simulation models and inform if and how they should be adjusted to the Montenegrin context (to be performed once the scope of potential policy scenarios and changeable policy variables is agreed with the government);
• Provide recommendations in the process of selection of a simulation model.

Under the guidance of UNDP, the above should be implemented in close cooperation with UNICEF.

Implementation phase:

In this phase, it is expected that the UNICEF contracted legal entity would run the simulations of the effects of policy reforms on the risk of poverty, desirably with specific attention to tax and benefits and fiscal space. Therefore, this phase may entail tailoring the model to the Montenegrin context, making sure that policy effects can be analyzed for different population groups (such as by age, gender, income source and household type) and producing additional analyses/policy briefs.

The consultant’s responsibilities are as follows:

• Provide advice to in setting up/tailoring the simulation model to the Montenegrin context and data availability;
• Provide recommendations on ways of generating remaining missing data to run policy simulations, including COVID-19 impact data;
• Monitor and quality assure the process of simulating & estimating the cost and impact of material benefits and different social assistance strategies on poverty: The process of policy simulation includes: Modelling different (re)distribution scenarios with different material benefit levels and coverage (as determined by means-testing criteria and beneficiary categories), within limits of available fiscal space, in terms of their mitigating impact on poverty rates and specific impact on different vulnerable groups. The models should estimate cost and impact of different interventions, including at least (i) family material support, (ii) child allowance, and (iii) personal disability benefit and care and support allowance. The goal is to identify those material benefits whose change in levels and coverage can have the highest potential impact on poverty reduction.
• Provide recommendations in exploring other policy options for achieving social policy goals, including adjustments in the design of tax revenue collection from taxpayers, with the focus on individuals/households at risk of poverty, at-risk-of-poverty groups. E.g. specific tax and/or social security contributions designed to address equity issues (such as specific exemptions and deductions, for example on compulsory work-related contributions that would in turn facilitate employment), notably for national at-risk-of poverty groups for which available data demonstrate that are concentrated around poverty lines, but which might not be covered by social welfare system and means-tested benefits. Primarily, groups such as working parents, families with three or more children etc. should be considered;
• Provide recommendations in formulating at least three policy scenarios based on outcome of simulations, that will propose redistribution scenarios of the existing envelope to better target and expand coverage of at-risk of poverty population, primarily children and families with children.
• Actively participates in the preparation and presentation of policy briefs regarding social assistance (cash transfers) in support of alternative policy scenarios to the Government and other partners.

Follow up phase:

The purpose of this phase is ensuring sustainability of models in social protection and their potential replicability in other sectors by performing capacity development for civil servants, and providing input to specifications for upgrades of the Social Welfare Information System.

The consultant’s responsibilities are as follows:

• Provide recommendations in designing the training and other capacity building measures in order to develop capacities of the MLSW and other key national stakeholders to run the policy simulation independently, to ensure sustainability;
• Provide inputs necessary to define specifications for Integrated Social Welfare Information System (ISWIS) adjustments (if necessary).

Key deliverables and time frame:

Consultancy work is expected to start in October 2020. A proposed timeline is presented below:

• Inception report with identified preconditions, gaps and recommendations on deploying the adequate policy simulation tools for Montenegro context, including proposal of implementation plan and methodology - by 30th October 2020 (15 working days);
• Provide recommendations for the policy modelling outline and methodology - by 30th November 2020 (20 working days);
• Provide recommendations for the design of at least three policy scenarios - by 30th April 2021 (25 working days);
• Actively participates in presenting the policy options and briefs to the Government partners - by 15th May 2021 (10 working days);
• Recommendations provided to the capacity building plan and trainings to the relevant national entity carry on the implementation of the policy scenarios - by 30th July 2021 (5 working days);
• Submission of the final report - by 1st November 2021 the latest (5 working days).

Throughout the implementation period the Consultant is expected to report once a month to the respective UNDP Team Leader on the tasks implemented, results achieved, including the risks analyses and proposed risk mitigation actions; The consultant is expected to conduct one 5-day mission and two 3-day missions to Podgorica, Montenegro during the period of assignment. The travel and living allowance related costs should be included in the financial proposal.

Competencies

• Demonstrates integrity by modeling the UN’s values and ethical standards;
• Promotes the vision, mission and strategic goals of UN/UNDP;
• Displays cultural, gender, religion, race, nationality and age sensitivity and adaptability;
• Ability to lead strategic planning, results-based management and reporting;
• Builds strong relationships with clients, focuses on impact and result for the client and responds positively to feedback;
• Consistently approaches work with energy and a positive, constructive attitude;
• Excellent communication and presentation skills and ability to operate under pressure;
• Demonstrates ability to manage complexities and work under pressure, as well as conflict resolution skills.

Required Skills and Experience

Education:

• Masters’ degree in Social sciences, Economics, Statistics, Development Policy, or a related relevant field (including quantitative component) is required. PhD degree would be considered as an asset.

Experience:

• Minimum 10 years of relevant working experience in the field of Social Policy, Social protection;
• At least 5 years of experience in quantitative analysis and developing policy simulations;
• Understanding of MIC/UMIC development context, especially when it comes to statistical analysis of poverty, vulnerability and/or deprivations using statistical/multivariate methods;
• Experience in costing policies, budget allocations and fiscal space; experience with cash transfers and related taxation will be considered a particular advantage;
• Extensive experience using income/expenditure and household force survey data, such as EU-SILC experience working alongside national statistical agencies will be considered a particular advantage;
• Experience with relevant software, such as SPSS and/or STATA;
• Experience working on social and/or child protection in southern or eastern Europe would be considered an advantage;
• Experience in working with UN/UNDP or other international organizations will be considered an advantage.

Language:

• Fluency in English is a requirement.
• Fluency in Montenegrin language is an asset.

Other:

• Computer literacy.

Criteria for selection:

Combined Scoring method will be used. When using this weighted scoring method, the award of the contract should be made to the inidividual consultant whose offer has been evaluated and determined as: (i) responsive, compliant, acceptable, and (ii) having received the highest score out of a pre-determined set of weighted technical and financial criteria specific to the solicitation.

• Technical criteria weight - 70% (Background and education 10%; Relevant previous experience 20%; Substantial knowledge/Required competencies 30%; Required language 10%);
• Financial criteria weight - 30%.

Only offerors obtaining a minimum 490 points for technical criteria will be considered for the financial evaluation. For more information on procurement methodology for Individual Contractors, please refer to Procurement Notice.

Application procedure:

Interested applicants are requested to submit their applications by September 2, 2020 by using the Apply now button. The application should contain a duly completed CV or Personal History Form (P11) that can be downloaded from https://www.me.undp.org/content/montenegro/sr/home/jobs.html .

Please note that UNDP jobsite system allows only one uploading of application document, so please make sure that you merge all your documents into a single file.

Only the short-listed applicants will be contacted and requested to submit a letter of interest including a price quotation indicating the lump sum (in EUR) requested for the work and travel envisaged in the section "Description of Responsibilities".