Consultant Programme & Policy

Contract

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Background

UNICEF Turkmenistan aims to support the Government and its partners to implement immediate socio-economic response plan to acute infectious disease pandemic (SERP) and develop recommendations for the effective social policy responses and recovery strategies in order to mitigate the socio-economic impact of the Covid-19 Crisis on children and their families, and to strengthen preparedness for similar events in the future. This Assignment is intended to generate evidence and advice to inform the planning of Government and developmental partners to better mitigate the medium and long-term impacts of Covid-19 on vulnerable groups in the society and strengthen the resilience of national systems against future pandemics and similar shocks.

The main objective of the Assignment is to support the State Statistics Committee to collect data through the Labor Force Survey, that will help to understand how COVID-19 pandemic impacted the socio-economic wellbeing of the households in Turkmenistan and adequacy of payments (related to all social benefits paid). These data will contribute to the emergency preparedness activity called: “Assess the readiness of the existing system (of SP) to respond to declining household incomes and develop a set of recommendations based on the needs of the population”.

The Labor Force Survey data will provide insights on the period of December 2019 to December 2020, when the Covid-19 crisis could have impacted household wellbeing, inequality, adequacy of payments (related to all social benefits paid) and social exclusion in Turkmenistan, and will help to estimate the mitigative/protective outcomes of key response measures. Based on the analysis of the data it is expected to develop a targeted recommendation to policy makers on strengthening the vulnerability, child and gender lenses of their planning in order to improve the targeting and effectiveness of their efforts to mitigate the socio-economic impact of the crisis.

To support the State Statistics Committee National and International Consultants will be hired to support the process and ensure that initially planned goals for this activity are followed.

Purpose of the assignment

Overall purpose of the assignment is to provide support to the State Statistics Committee and involved ministries in implementation of the Labor Force Survey (LFS), that will help to assess how the secondary effects of the crisis will impact social protection programmes, household wellbeing, inequality and social inclusion in Turkmenistan.

Collected through the Labor Force Survey data will help to develop policy recommendations for the policy makers to ensure the socioeconomic impact mitigation plans of the national authorities sufficiently address the age and gender-specific vulnerabilities that will develop or be exacerbated due to the pandemic situation.

Specific Tasks

Specifically, the International consultant will contribute to the Labor Force Suvey, as follows:

• Review the National LFS Questionnaire and provide recommendations on potential changes to be made to apply LFS for socio-economic vulnerability assessments making reference to latest international statistical standards and guidance from the ILO.
• Work with national consultant and develop a recommendation for the up-date of the questionnaire and development of the training materials for the supervisors of the LFS Survey (if SSC will find it necessary)
• When LFS completed, identify completeness of the data and needs for additional resources, in consultation with the RCO, ILO, World Bank, UNICEF and State Statistics Committee
• Support and guide national consultant to make sure, that LFS comply with ILO, World Bank and UNICEF’s policies and guidelines on quality assurance and ethics on evidence generation
• In partnership with the National Consultant and based on the LFS data and other source undertake the socio-economic analysis with a focus on the impacts on children and families and assess adequacy of payments (related to all social benefits paid) provided to the households. Analysis will include:

1) Modelling the household level impact of Covid-19 on household employment, income, household and child wellbeing using agreed macro-economic projections and impact scenarios.

2) Simulating & Estimating the impact of cash-transfer and social assistance strategies: Modelling the distribution of such benefits in terms of their mitigating impact on wellbeing of the families (monetary and multidimensional). And, modelling different scenarios with different benefit level and target groups such as targeting every applicant household with children; targeting every applicant household with children if they are in the bottom (20%) quintile; targeting every applicant household if they are in the bottom 2 (40%) quintiles.

3) Cost of response estimates & simulations: Estimate the cost of different interventions, including (i) cash transfers, (ii) unemployment benefits for parents who lost jobs due to COVID-19 (amount and duration), (iii) monetary benefits (amount and duration) based on proxy means testing or other means of identification of such families, and (iv) Social Assistance programs to address COVID-19’s impact on child wellbeing, child wellbeing or material deprivations.

• Develop recommendations targeting families and children, to respond to and mitigate the negative effects identified in the socio-economic impact analysis.

Tasks:

Deliverables/Outputs:

Date

Support to LFS

• Review the National LFS Questionnaire and provide recommendations on potential changes to be made to apply LFS for socio-economic vulnerability assessments
• Work with national consultant and develop a recommendation for the up-date of the Questionnaire and development of the training materials for the supervisors of the LFS Survey (if SSC will find it necessary)
• When LFS completed, identify completeness of the data and needs for additional resources, in consultation with the RCO, World Bank, UNICEF and State Statistics Committee
• Support and guide national consultant to make sure, that LFS comply with ILO, World Bank and UNICEF’s policies and guidelines on quality assurance and ethics on evidence generation
• In partnership with the National Consultant and based on the LFS data and other source undertake the socio-economic analysis with a focus on the impacts on children and families and assess adequacy of payments (related to all social benefits paid) provided to the households.
• Develop recommendations targeting families and children, to respond to and mitigate the negative effects identified in the socio-economic impact analysis.

January 10, 2021

March 10, 2021

April 10, 2021

May 10, 2021

June 15, 2021

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Workplan and deliverables

The consultancy will cover the period of 15 January until 15 June 2021 and will be deliverable based. The consultant is expected to work from home and with his own computer/equipment. Travel to Turkmenistan is not envisioned, due to travel restrictions, but if this will be possible, travel expenses will be calculated separately. Specific tasks for Survey Plan implementation may be adjusted based on current events and corporate priorities.

It is expected, that above deliverables ill include:

• Inception report (10 pages +Annexes ), describing a brief background, detailed methodology, including limitations, data that will be used, research matrix listing key questions, time schedule and the proposed Outline covering focus and the scope.

• PPT (designed for a non-specialist audience) presenting the methodology and findings.

• Recommendations Report. Providing recommendations on programmes, new measures, adjustments to existing measures, schemes addressing the specific needs of families and children. Recommendations would also indicate some selection criteria, duration, trigger events, and potential beneficiaries.

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Reporting requirements

International Survey Consultant will provide monthly reports and final report at the end of the assignment in Russian or English.

Payment schedule

Payments will be made monthly as a lump sum. All deliverables must be delivered on time and to the satisfaction of the State Statistics Committee and the UNICEF Turkmenistan.

The costs of the travel, if undertaken within the framework of the consultancy, will be added to the contract and reimbursed, as the need arises.

Work arrangements

Day to day supervision and guidance will be provided by UNICEF Turkmenistan Child Rights Monitoring Specialist. UNICEF will regularly communicate with the International Survey Consultant and provide UNICEF and UN requirements, guidance on specific questions, feedback on performance and all other necessary support to achieve objectives of the consultancy.

General Terms and Conditions

UNICEF’s general terms and conditions will apply to the contract awarded to the vendor. Please note that, in the evaluation of the technical merits of each proposal, UNICEF will take into consideration any proposed amendments to the UNICEF General Terms and Conditions. Proposed amendments to the UNICEF general terms and conditions may negatively affect the evaluation of the technical merits of the proposal.

UNICEF retains the right to patent and intellectual rights, as well as copyright and other similar intellectual property rights for any discoveries, inventions, products or works arising specifically from the implementation of the project in cooperation with UNICEF. The right to reproduce or use materials shall be transferred with a written approval of UNICEF based on the consideration of each separate case. Consultant should always refer to UNICEF Turkmenistan support in developing the materials when publishing the results of the research conducted while in Turkmenistan in academic journals, books and websites.

In the event of unsatisfactory performance, UNICEF reserves the right to terminate the Agreement. In case of partially satisfactory performance, such as serious delays causing the negative impact on meeting the programme objectives, low quality or insufficient depth and/or scope of the assignment completion, UNICEF is entitled to decrease the payment by the range from 30% to 50% of the contract value as decided jointly by the Contract Supervisor and Operations Manager.

Qualifications and Skills Required

• At least 8 years of experience in quantitative analysis, especially pertaining to statistical analysis of wellbeing and vulnerability indicators and developing simulations / modelling; revision of questionnaires, planning and participation in LFS
• Previous research on child/family wellbeing, vulnerability and/or deprivations using statistical/multivariate methods.
• Advanced experience with relevant software such as SPSS, and/or STATA;
• Proven track record of writing high quality economic and policy papers;
• Excellent organizational skills, attention to detail, and ability to contribute to a team research process.
• Knowledge of Turkmenistan’s socio-economic development trends or experience of work in Central Asia;
• Knowledge of English and Russian

Technical Proposal

The technical proposal should include

• A cover letter, including
  • Assessment of suitability vis-à-vis the requirements of this ToR;
  • A summary of experience in similar assignments;
  • Links to/attachments of examples of similar work;
• CV of the candidate
• References

Financial Proposal

Candidates are expected to submit a lump sum financial proposal to complete the entire assignment based on the terms of reference. The lump sum should cover deliverables indicated above.

Evaluation

Each proposal will be assessed first on its technical merits and subsequently on its price. In making the final decision, UNICEF considers both technical and financial aspects to ensure best value for money. The Evaluation Team first reviews the technical aspects of the offer (on the basis of the qualifications described above), followed by review of the financial offers of the technically compliant candidates. The proposal obtaining the highest overall score after adding the scores for the technical and financial proposals together, that offers the best value for money will be recommended for award of the contract.

A cumulative analysis will be used to evaluate and award proposals. The evaluation criteria associated with this TOR is split between technical and financial as follows: 70% Technical, 30% Financial, 100 % Total.

Proposal Evaluation Criteria

The proposals will be evaluated against the following criteria:

1. Technical Evaluation Criteria (70%) with the following weighting

The total amount of points allocated for the technical component is 70.

Criteria

Points

At least 8 years of experience in quantitative analysis, especially pertaining to statistical analysis of wellbeing and vulnerability indicators and developing simulations / modelling; revision of questionnaires, planning and participation in LFS

20

Proven track record of writing high quality economic and policy papers;

30

Knowledge of Turkmenistan’s socio-economic development trends or experience of work in Central Asia

20

2. Price Proposal Evaluation Criteria (30%)

- Overall cost (unit costs, investments per phase, level of effort, etc.)

The price/cost of each of the technically compliant proposals shall be considered together with the evaluation of technical criteria.

Technical proposals failing to reach a score of 60 in total will not be considered for the consultancy.

The bidders should ensure that all pricing information is provided in accordance with the following:

- The currency of the proposal shall be in USD. Invoicing will be in the currency of the proposal.

- For the purpose of evaluation, UNICEF shall use US Dollars to evaluate all financial proposals.

Both technical and financial proposals should be submitted by 5 January 2021 (by 23.59 pm local time).

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Added 3 years ago - Updated 2 years ago - Source: unicef.org