Individual Consultant-Economist for the Char Dham Yatra study

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Application deadline 3 years ago: Friday 21 Aug 2020 at 23:59 UTC

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This is a National Consultant contract. More about National Consultant contracts.

Background

COVID-19 has impacted a number of sectors but tourism is considered one of the hardest hit industries to face losses by the pandemic due to severe travel restrictions, imposed quarantines, and fall in global demand. The resulting outcome is a significant slump in revenues, employment, and increased risks for small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Despite tourism’s proven resilience in responses to other crisis, there is much evidence that the impact and recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic will be unprecedented. According to the World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO), the global impact of COVID-19 on tourism is notably high with international tourist arrivals expected to dip by 20% to 30% in 2020 as compared to 2019 figures. This is equivalent to a loss of 300-450 US$ billion in international tourism receipts (exports) – almost one third of the US$ 1.5 trillion generated globally, with a lion share of this decrease in revenue to be faced by Asian countries.

Over the past decade, the tourism sector has emerged as an important contributor to the Uttarakhand economy and gained recognized as a growth driver for inclusive social economic progress through livelihood promotion initiative, being one of the most labour-intensive of the non-agriculture sectors where unskilled and semi-skilled workers can readily participate in the service economy, both in formal and informal capacities. It is also a major foreign exchange earner and has the potential to increase the living standards of people living in rural parts of the state. Tourism has seen a steady increase over the years despite natural calamities such as the 2013 Kedarnath flood. In Uttarakhand, the number of foreign tourists increased from 0.54 to 1.4 lakhs, while domestic travellers grew significantly from 10.54 million to 34.58 million between 2001 and 2017. primarily driven by opportunities related to adventure tourism, green/eco-tourism, rural tourism, and pilgrimage.

Char Dham Yatra

Uttarakhand’s four prominent pilgrim-destinations - Yamunotri, Gangotri, Kedarnath, and Badrinath, collectively known as Char Dham, attract over 35 lakh tourists and pilgrims every year and have become the most important hubs of religious travel in the whole of Northern India. Char Dham pilgrimage operates for six months in a year and is considered the backbone of the economy of Garhwal Himalayas, where it is the main source of people's livelihood. According to an RBI Report entitled, ‘State finances: A Study of Budget 2019-2020’, the government of Uttarakhand earned INR 166.1 lakh from tourism in 2017-2018. According to the Budget document of Uttarakhand Government, INR 141.02 lakh income has been generated from the tourism sector in 2018-2019, and the estimated income of 2020-2021 from tourism is INR 299.9 lakh.

However, in 2020-2021, the economy of the tourism sector, particularly in relation to mountainous areas, is expected to severely decline by the threat posed by the novel coronavirus, in addition to the potential systemic effects of climate change. Since travel and tourism are both a contributor to disease spread, the entire tourism value chain faces an uncertain future including taxi and maxi operators, drivers, small shopkeepers, restaurants and hotel owners, agro-companies providing food to resorts, etc.

During the year 2017-18 over 3 Crore tourists (nearly three times that of the state population) came to Uttarakhand and majority of them travelled to the Chardhams. This number has been projected to reach to 6 Crore by 2026. In the current pandemic and lockdown situation any tourist footfall in Uttarakhand and on the Char Dham yatra has completely ceased. To attract the tourists back once the situation normalises and the travel restrictions are lifted, the State Govt has proposed to put in place a road map, a revival strategy and a way forward. It also sees this as an opportunity for sectoral course correction and to put in place a system with regulations that are sensitive to the ecology, health, hygienic and cultural sensibilities of the region. This will also help to attract a right mix of high value and sustainable volume of the tourist footfall in the state.

The Char Dham Yatra is both a major revenue generator and a source of livelihood for rural mountain communities in Uttarakhand. On the request of the tourism department, UNDP is currently undertaking a study on the Chardham yatra roadmap and revival plan (henceforth called The Study). As a part of this study UNDP is seeking to hire a development economist to study the estimated economic losses to the Uttarakhand tourism sector (incurred by businesses and the state government) due to the COVID-19 pandemic and propose a scenario-based revival plan for the Char Dham yatra.

Duties and Responsibilities

Scope and Objective of the assignment

The assignment will entail the following:

  • Identify and undertake data collection and analysis to estimate economic losses due to COVID-19 w.r.t the Chardham yatra
  • provide technical inputs to the Study to design and draft scenario-based revival plans, including proposing relevant policy recommendations.

    Pl refer to the detailed methodology expected to be followed for the assignment.

Proposed Methodology

  1. Estimation of losses to the economy

1.a. Estimation of Loss to the business segment

  • For the estimation purpose, the period from March 2020 till May 2020 shall be used. For forecasting potential loss in future, suitable proxy along with weights on alternative indicators shall be used for linear extrapolation of the outcomes. For example, studying LPG distribution or fuel consumption data as a proxy for fall in tourism demand along the Char Dham yatra route with the onset of the pandemic.

For assessing the Impact of COVID-19

  • Classification of stakeholders and the broad business linkages among them. The data on the set of stakeholders, their numbers and other relevant details viz. GST registrations etc. shall be made available by UTDB.
  • Identification of the revenue and employment baseline of the alternative categories of the entities based on GST returns, EPFO or similar sources
  • For entities which are in the informal sector (i.e. entities not covered under GST), broad proxies/comparable indicators shall be used for revenue line identification and employment capabilities
  • Stratification of the entities in the clusters based on various criterion. Collecting/assessing/extrapolating details of seasons, tourist inflows, occupancy level, etc with the help of entities which are in the same cluster and are covered under GST
  • Establishing the linkages of tourist inflows with business activities of entities
  • The notional loss due to the inventory accumulation shall also be estimated for relevant stakeholders across categories.

1.b. Estimation of Loss to the state government

  • The tentative estimation of various fees/cess/surcharges and taxes that could have been collected by the state government
  • Losses to commercial initiatives of the government viz. TRHs of GMVN & KMVN.

B. Preparing the scenario-based revival plans and strategy for way forward

  • Strategy for way forward is to be prepared to tackle a crisis-like situation and take necessary steps to manage fixed costs and ensure business continuity. Findings from this study will be further utilised to formulate strategies and broad policy guidelines to create enabling framework for undertaking various initiatives by the state government which may help in offsetting the estimated losses to businesses activities during the identified period;
  • The effort shall be to develop at least three scenarios and recommend alternative models of revival strategies;
  • The recommendations on revival plan shall focus on possible concessions, exemptions on statutory compliances that could be structured for revival plan;
  • The recommendations shall propose the possible sources of raising the estimated finances by the government.

Deliverables

DELIVERABLE

TIMELINE

Inception report with a detailed outline of the proposed research methodology, study plan/approach, identification of stakeholders, identification of proxy indicators for analysis, and study timeline;

Within 3 working days from start of assignment

Zero draft report:

Assessment of economic impact of COVID19 on the Char Dham yatra including:

  1. Estimation of Loss to the business segment
  2. Estimation of Loss to the state government

Within 12 working days from the start of the assignment

Final report:

technical report based on data collected and analysed to develop scenario-based revival plans and provide policy recommendations to the Government on Uttarakhand on the sustainable operations of the Char Dham yatra.

Within 15 working days from the start of the assignment

Competencies

Competencies

a) Excellent data analysis and report writing skills.

b) Excellent organizational skills.

c) Strong analytical, writing and communication skills.

d) Ability to prepare publications, reports and presentations.

Required Skills and Experience

The award of the contract shall be made to the individual consultant whose offer has been evaluated and determined as Responsive to the requirement. Having received the highest score out of a pre-determined set of weighted technical and financial criteria specific to the solicitation.

Only candidates obtaining a minimum of 49 points (70% of the total technical points) would be considered for the Financial Evaluation.

• Technical Criteria weight - 70%.

• Financial Criteria weight – 30 %

Technical Criteria (70% of total evaluation)

  1. At least three years of experience of coordinating research works- 20%
  2. At least two years of experience with the Central and/or State Government agencies and managing multiple stakeholders - 20 %
  3. At least two research publications at the national level - 20%
  4. At least one research publication on Gender related topic – 10%

Financial Criteria: (30% of the total evaluation) based on the total all-inclusive lump sum amount for professional fee for tasks specified in this announcement

Submission of Proposal

Financial Proposal:

Consultant should specify his/her lumpsum consultancy fee. Please quote your professional fee only. Do not include travel costs in your financial quote as these will be reimbursed separately, as per actuals, subject to UNDP’s prevailing rules.

Documents to be submitted by Consultants

  1. Letter to UNDP Confirming Interest and Availability for the Individual Contractor Assignment
  2. Updated and signed P-11 form for ICs

Note:

  1. Any kind of miscellaneous charges i.e. internet, phone, relocation charges etc. would not be reimbursed.
  2. Travel, lodging and boarding as per UNDP rules subject to prior approval
  3. Individuals working with institutions may also apply, contract would be issued in the name of institution for the specific services of individual

    Please ensure that all the documents to be uploaded should be combined in a single PDF file before uploading as the system has provision of uploading only one document.

General Conditions for Individual Contract- http://www.in.undp.org/content/dam/india /docs/procurement/UNDP%20General%20Conditions%20for%20Individual%20Contracts.pdf

For any clarifications, please write to: [email protected]

UNDP strives to have a workforce, which reflects diversity and gender balance, and applies an equal opportunities approach. UNDP does not solicit or screen for information in respect of HIV or AIDS status. All selections are on merit

Added 3 years ago - Updated 3 years ago - Source: jobs.undp.org