Green Economic Model (GEM) Specialist for the GCF Readiness Project: Resilient Recovery Rapid Readiness Support in Honduras

Result of Service 2. Objective

The objective of the consultancy is to develop the resilient recovery strategy and its investment plan ready to be approved and adopted by the national authorities. For this purpose, a cost-benefit analysis (GEM) will build the technical evidence and will quantify the cost and the benefits that will ultimately aid decision-makers in formulating and adopting the resilient recovery strategy, taking into consideration the COVID-19 consequences and the impacts of the Eta and Iota hurricanes. The resilient recovery strategy will include an investment plan with a number of prioritized measures, previously consulted with relevant stakeholders and policy decision-makers. The consultant will join the Climate Change Unit of the UNEP Latin America and the Caribbean Office under the TT of the GCF Readiness project and will undertake the following activities:

Development of Deliverable 1: Report on diagnostic analysis on impacts and opportunities of COVID-19 and ETA/IOTA hurricanes recovery measures. - Perform desk analysis of the impacts of COVID19 and economic stimulus measures on the climate change strategies and plans. - Develop report on COVID19/economic stimulus impacts on climate change strategies and plans. - Update the data collection based on a “data wish list” document (with information by 2022). This includes the collection of time series for relevant indicators (macroeconomics and sectoral data), as well as the identification of required numerical assumptions and the integration of other economic modelling tools and aligned assumptions. - Prepare information and materials to present the GEM to the NDA and PSC members, with the aid of the PCU and UNEP to start defining the list of measures to be included into the GEM to construct the policy scenarios and evaluate the forecasts. Development of Deliverable 2: Report on the outcomes of the stakeholders’ consultations, with a list of participants - Prepare information and materials to undertake stakeholder interviews (2 workshops), with the aid of the PCU, under the guidance of Honduras NDA and UNEP to: i) define a preliminary list of measures to be included into the GEM and in consequence to be analysed; ii) to validate the initial assumptions and adjustments to the GEM; and iii) to validate which are the opportunities for aligning the country’s climate change agenda with the economic recovery agenda post-COVID-19 and Eta/Iota hurricanes. - Undertake stakeholder interviews and meetings (2 workshops) on opportunities for aligning the country’s climate change agenda with the economic recovery agenda. - Identify key scenario assumptions for the alternative scenarios and (to be constructed by the consultant). This includes the definition of policy interventions and related timeline and ambition, including the post-COVID-19 and Eta/Iota economic recovery measures; and any other future climate-related disasters. Development of Deliverable 3: GEM Honduras report (updated) - Based on the previous findings, to adjust and equip the GEM with several strategies (e.g., policy interventions, or specific infrastructure investments) and carry out an integrated assessment of the outcomes across sectors, economic actors, dimensions of development. - Incorporate future climate-related disasters to assess the related additional costs, damages, losses and economic impacts of hurricanes into the Business as Usual (BAU) and alternative scenarios. - Forecast the effects of both the COVID19 pandemic as well as additional costs, damages, losses, and economic impacts of hurricanes. The forecast must be run from 2022 up to 2060, or beyond. - Analyze the forecast’s impact on GDP and several other indicators (such as job creation, and other indicators already validated in previous activities) that will aid to recovery measures. - Create simulations, via the review and validation of model results, for all scenarios simulated with GEM. This includes the definition of policy interventions and related timeline and ambition, including the post-COVID-19 and Eta/Iota economic recovery measures. - Incorporate a geographical spatial assessment (at the national and subnational level, community level if possible) for the policy measures included into the Business as Usual (BAU) and alternative scenarios. Specific spatial information is needed when evaluating the economic impacts of hurricanes, at the national, subnational, and community levels. - Depict the maps with a granular resolution, to show the results of the spatial assessment (using Invest model software). - Based on the analysis, select the first batch of prioritized measures that could deliver the expected economic, social and climate benefits to the post-COVID-19 and Eta/Iota economic recovery measures. - Write the assessment report, including a high-level policy brief, providing an interpretation of the results of the GEM, in the context of the country. - Design a power point presentation of the GEM findings. - Present the findings (report and PowerPoint) to technical specialists and high-level officials under the PSC. Development of Deliverable 4: Report of consultation workshops and list(s) of participants demonstrating a balance of stakeholders, which includes women, civil society, and private sector participants - Based on the modelling, plan and undertake the stakeholder interviews and meetings, with the aid of the PCU, the NDA, and UNEP, to present and validate the prioritized list of measures (4 workshops in total). The prioritization of measures and actions (policy interventions and economic investments) must be defined according to the diagnosis and qualitative contributions made by the different social and economic agents of the territory. - Integrate the feedback received from different stakeholders (it must include women, civil society, vulnerable groups, and private sector participants) during the 4 workshops. - Test the various “what if” scenarios of the prioritized list of measures (policy and investment outcomes) for a post-COVID-19 and Eta/Iota recovery, during the stakeholder consultations (4 workshops in total). - Select and present to the PSC, the prioritized list of measures (policy and investment outcomes) for an economic recovery in Honduras. The outcomes, presented in robust analysis, will show the need to promote the implementation of several programmes/projects to ensure a resilient recovery. Development of Deliverable 5: One resilient recovery strategy and investment plan document - Based on the above workshop consultations, translate the prioritized list of measures (policy and investment outcomes) into a resilient recovery strategy and into a concrete investment plan, including several policy and economic measures. - Develop a robust financial and economic analysis, as the basis of the investment plan, taking into consideration the outputs of the stakeholder consultations, the GEM modelling, the country climate forecasts, and the spatial impact of policies and measures (at the national and subnational level). - Develop an investment plan considering the availability of financial resources (national/international, public/private) as well as the expected social, economic, and environmental outcomes of interventions, based on a clear timeline and stakeholder roles. - Write the resilient recovery strategy and investment plan document, including the high-level policy brief. - Design a power point presentation of the resilient recovery strategy and investment plan. - Present the findings (report and PowerPoint) to technical specialists and high-level officials under the PSC.

3. Outputs / Work Assignments

Product No 1: Report on diagnostic analysis on impacts and opportunities of COVID-19 and Eta/Iota hurricanes recovery measures Product No. 2: Report on the outcomes of the stakeholders’ consultations, with a list of participants Product No. 3: GEM Honduras report (updated) Product No. 4: Report of consultation workshops and list(s) of participants demonstrating a balance of stakeholders, which includes women, civil society, and private sector participants Product No. 5: One resilient recovery strategy and investment plan document

Work Location HOME-BASED

Expected duration 7 MONTHS

Duties and Responsibilities 1. Purpose

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is the leading global environmental authority that sets the global environmental agenda, promotes the coherent implementation of the environmental dimension of sustainable development within the United Nations system and serves as an authoritative advocate for the global environment.

The UNEP Latin America and the Caribbean Office (LACO), located in Panama City, works closely with the 33 countries of the region and its activities are integrated into the Medium-Term Strategy and the Programme of Work approved by the United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA).

During the XXII Meeting of the Forum of Ministers of Environment of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) (Barbados, February 2021), the Ministers stressed the need to integrate ambitious climate mitigation and adaptation measures at the heart of the region’s Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) economic recovery strategies, recognizing that an economic recovery aligned with the Paris Agreement would enable countries to build back better, with low-emissions and climate-resilient investments driving economic growth, job creation, and significant environmental and social co-benefits. Therefore, the Ministers requested UNEP, as Secretariat of the Forum, to support LAC countries in developing COVID-19 recovery response measures aligned with low-emission and climate-resilient economies that leave no one behind. To support this formal request, UNEP designed the “Programme to support the post-COVID-19 economic recovery in line with the Paris Agreement on climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean”.

For Honduras, 2020 was a very difficult year not only for the COVID-19 pandemic that left many people jobless but also because of the tropical storm ETA (5 November 2020) and hurricane Iota (18 November 2020). Due to the impact of the pandemic and the natural disasters, the country's landscape is extremely complicated, and it is experiencing an unprecedented setback in the economy, employment, and public finances. Therefore, the National Designated Authority (NDA) of the government of Honduras requested the Green Climate Fund (GCF) assistance to develop the Resilient Recovery Readiness project with the objective of supporting the national policy and strategy on reconstruction, including the translation of these efforts into concrete mid- to long-term investment strategies.

The GCF Readiness project will aid Honduras NDA to: - Integrate the impacts of COVID-19 pandemic and Hurricanes Eta and Iota, along with climate change with economic recovery models to quantify their impact of action and inaction and identify concrete interventions to re-build the economy based on principles of climate resilience (national strategy on resilient recovery). - Identify, validate, and prioritize actions in a participatory and transparent process that supports the development of a concrete investment strategy and plan. - Select prioritized interventions, conduct pre-feasibility assessments, and integrate them into concept notes for GCF finance. This would then facilitate concrete investments that materialize green transformation of the economy.

A Technical Team (TT) will be established, under the lead of the Project Coordination Unit (PCU) and UNEP for the conceptual as well as technical development of deliverables of the project. The TT will be responsible for the overall technical implementation of the project. The TT will be formed by individual consultants under guidance of the PCU, UNEP and close supervision by the Honduras NDA and the Project Steering Committee (PSC). The TT envisions to have a specialist to develop the Green Economic Model (GEM).

The GEM is an evidence-based analysis used to assess policy outcomes across sectors, economic actors, dimensions of development, and over time. It extends and advances the policy analysis carried out with sectoral tools by accounting for the dynamic interplay between economic sectors, as well as social, economic, and environmental dimensions of development. The inclusion of cross-sectoral relations supports a wider analysis of the implications of alternative development policies, and proposes a long-term perspective that allows for the identification and anticipation of potential side effects and sustainability of different strategies.

For the purposes of this project, the Honduras GEM was customized to country context and designed to include all key sectors that are relevant for the assessment of low carbon development and climate resilience options for Honduras. The customization process has led to the creation of 11 sectors, made of 40 modules. Further a spatial assessment was carried out, with the use of several Invest models. GEM was integrated with the LEAP models developed at national level (via soft coupling) to ensure coherence and alignment with national modelling efforts. The main dynamics analyzed include, among others, demographic trends, COVID-19 impacts on the economy, emissions from energy demand and supply, land management, land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) and waste. At this stage, the GEM is already calibrated and modelled with latest economic information (May 2022), and the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario is completely developed. The next step is to build the alternative scenarios which are to be used for showing the policy and economic interventions and investments of the reconstruction plan. As such, the GEM will be used for this GCF Readiness Project to support policy formulation and policy assessment to inform and guide the Government of Honduras in the preparation of a resilient recovery and reconstruction package, including an investment plan, post-COVID-19 and post-Eta and Iota crises.

For these reasons, the Climate Change Unit of UNEP’s Latin America and the Caribbean Office is looking for a Green Economic Model (GEM) Specialist for the GCF Readiness Project: Resilient Recovery Rapid Readiness Support in Honduras . She/he will develop the adjustment of the GEM, with a sector-based approach, to quantify and showcase the social, environmental, and economic benefits of a post-COVID-19 resilient recovery based on low emissions. The GEM Specialist will: i) update the GEM, based on the PSC and the NDA validation and the most recent country measures for its resilient recovery; ii) develop the GEM including policy measures, climate-forecast, economic scenarios, and a spatial assessment of their impacts; iii) validate the priority measures (policy interventions and economic investments) with relevant stakeholders; and iv) develop the resilient recovery strategy and its investment plan, with specific financial resources, timeline, and roles to be implemented.

The GEM Specialist will work in close collaboration with the Secretariat of Natural Resources and Environment (MiAmbiente+) of Honduras and other national consultants and government and non-governmental counterparts to fully incorporate the country’s vision and development plan on resilient recovery. The incumbent will be supervised by the Programme Management Officer for Climate Finance. The position is home-based with availability during office hours (time zone Tegucigalpa, Honduras).

Qualifications/special skills Academic Qualifications: - Master's degree (or equivalent degree/experience) in a quantitative field such as mathematics, statistics, engineering, physics, economics, computer science or a related field is required.

Experience: - At least 10 years working experience in analysis and formulation of economic strategies and policies, and considerable knowledge of net-zero and climate resilient economy frameworks and global trends is required. - At least 10 years of solid experience, technical specialization and proven experience working on economy modelling issues is required. - Experience with national planning is required. - Experience with integrating knowledge across different economic sector for climate mitigation and adaptation is required. - Knowledge of different modelling techniques is required. - Experience working with recovery packages is required. - Experience working with Latin American and Caribbean countries is required. - Experience on green economy assessments is required. - Experience on supporting policy formulation is required. - Experience with Integrated assessment modelling, including on areas of System Dynamics, Optimization Methods (e.g., CGE, Energy Model), Modelling of biophysical systems (Biodiversity, Water, Forest Sectors, Climate) is required. - Ability to deliver at speed and to adapt to client / country needs. - Demonstrates strong quantitative skills and the ability to carry out high quality net-zero and climate resilient economy research, including statistical analysis. - Possesses proven ability to analyse a net-zero and climate resilient economy topics from a national/regional/global perspective, with the ability to offer practical policy advice on issues based on local realities. - Proven record as lead author, researcher, reviewer and technical coordinator of major international publications and reports in climate change mitigation issues regarding agriculture, energy and/or transport sectors is desirable.

Language: - Fluent in English is required - Fluent in Spanish both written and spoken is desirable.

Skills: - Strong analytical skills with high attention to detail and accuracy, including strategically analysing data; synthesizing findings from diverse materials and sources, diagnosing opportunities, and providing interventions is required. - Knowledge and familiarity with general equilibrium and/or system dynamics models is highly valuable. - Knowledge and familiarity with hydrological models are desirable. - Excellent verbal, written, and interpersonal communication skills is required. - Ability to present complex issues in simple and clear manner is required. - Ability to communicate trends and impacts to high-level and mid-senior level management is required. - Demonstrates integrity and ethical standards is required. - Ability to work under pressure and deliver high quality results on time is required.

No Fee THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.