Elaboration of energy consumption scenarios compatible with sustainable development goals

Result of Service Provide analyzes as subsidies to increase institutional capacity to include sustainable development criteria in public policies.

Work Location Brasília

Expected duration 365 Days

Duties and Responsibilities In September 2015, representatives of the 193 UN Member States recognized that the eradication of poverty, in its most varied forms and dimensions, would be the greatest global challenge, as well as an indispensable requirement for achieving sustainable development. To this end, the agreement “Transforming Our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development” was created, in which the participants committed to take the necessary measures to overcome this challenge and promote sustainable development in their respective countries. The 2030 Agenda brings an action plan with 17 Sustainable Development Goals, the SDGs, and 169 targets, to eradicate poverty and promote a decent life for citizens, within the limits of the planet. These are clear goals and objectives, so that countries adopt a sustainable development path consistent with their priorities and act in partnership with other countries to bring a better quality of life to the society. Energy is essential for most human activities and, according to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals – SDGs, sustainable development cannot be achieved without affordable, viable and modern energy services. It is not by chance that the 7th SDG determines the need to ensure universal, reliable, sustainable, modern, and affordable access for everyone.

However, such a sustainable development path requires effective energy planning to guarantee energy supply at the lowest possible economic, social, and environmental costs. The energy supply is planned to meet the expected demands. In such a way that the energy demand projection is shown to be one of the most critical components of energy planning and, consequently, also the one with the greatest potential for improvement.

For developing countries, studies focusing on analyzing energy demands and improving their forecasting methods are even more encouraged. Given these countries' financial constraints, poor planning can incur additional costs that go beyond their financial resource constraints. In addition, a development trajectory, however sustainable, encompasses economic growth, an increase in per capita income, eradication of poverty, improvement in income distribution, gains in quality of life and, therefore, can hardly be dissociated from changes in standards. consumption, lifestyle, and energy demand. However, how to represent in the demand projection models the changes in the energy consumption pattern along a development trajectory? Most energy demand forecasting methods were developed by and for developed countries and, because of this, they are not considered key issues for developing country analysis, such as electrification, informal economy, poor performance of the energy sector, traditional biofuels, structural changes, and divisions between rich and poor, urban, and rural. Many of these models assume that the energy demands of developing countries will simply follow those of industrialized countries with some delay. However, they fail to consider that, due to the possibility of leaping and learning processes, the trajectory of a developing country may be faster or simply different, due to structural and cultural differences. Additionally, since poverty and extreme poverty are not a latent systemic issue in most developed countries, inequality in energy demand among parts of the population ends up not being the focus of energy planning models. This is because the energy demand of families of different income classes does not present such significant differences, in terms of amount and composition, in developed countries. However, in developing countries, the distribution of energy demand clearly reflects income disparities. Therefore, the objective is to increase the institutional capacity for the inclusion of sustainable development criteria in public policies and to encourage innovation and the incorporation of new technologies in production for different income classes. To reach this goal, the following activities will be developed: (a) Elaboration of a study associating the evolution of the national accounts with the energy matrix of Brazil using the hybrid input-output matrix and computable general equilibrium models. b) Obtaining an optimized scenario for energy demand and pollutant emissions in order to maintain the goals compatible with sustainable development in the period: 2021-2030. c) Elaboration of an optimized scenario for energy demand by income bracket compatible with the sustainable development goals for the period 2021-2030, which minimizes the social cost incident on the lower income brackets.

Qualifications/special skills Academic Qualifications: - Doctorate in energy, economics and/or related topics Experience: -Minimum of 5 (five) years of experience in the areas of economics; energy/energy planning; environmental impacts and/or related topics -Publications in the energy area Language: - Fluency in Portuguese - Fluency in English

Additional Information Outputs/ Works Assignment: Product 1 – . Preparation of the hybrid input-output matrix with household consumption broken down into ten income brackets and preparation of a preliminary report. To be submitted 180 days after start Product 2. Final study report (product 1), in Text for Discussion format. To be submitted 210 days after start Product 3. Preparation of the CGE model with simulation of scenarios compatible with the sustainable development goals for the period 2021-2030 and delivery of a preliminary report. To be submitted 330 days after start Product 4. Final version of the study (product 3), in Text for Discussion format. To be submitted 365 days after start

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