Econometric Model Development

Result of Service Output: econometric model developed in one of the statistical software (to be identified and agreed during assignment inception). 1. Development of a model to simulate correlation between regulation and prices 20 September 2. Report on impact of regulation on prices of regulated products and policy recommendations 30 September 3. Development of econometric model for a forecast on the energy price increase (lower and upper threshold) 2023-2025 15 October 4. Report on the assessment of the share of energy prices in prime cost of agriculture and transport sub-sectors 21 October 5 Econometric model assessing the impact on GDP of energy efficiency and renewables measures in residential and public sectors 31 October 6. Progress activity report could be submitted in lieu of specific output subject to prior approval As needed

Work Location Chisinau

Expected duration 6 months

Duties and Responsibilities The objective of the Consultancy is to provide support to the RCO in the development of specific analytical tools (notably econometric model for forecasting the energy price increase) for assessment and forecasting of the impact of energy inputs on agriculture (cereals, horticulture, livestock) and transport sectors (private logistical companies and public transportation) in view of identification of policy measures to minimize the negative impact. The Consultant is expected to work closely with the RCO Team to make a substantive contribution to the development of econometric model and provide such other analytical support as/if needed in support of the above-mentioned scope of work. Under the guidance of and with support from the RCO, the Individual ¿onsultant will have the following responsibilities: 1. Provide inputs to the in-depth CPI analysis, if/as needed; 2. Develop and calibrate/validate econometric model for energy price increase and impact on specific subsectors of agriculture and transport; 3. Develop and calibrate/ validate an econometric model for the assessment of the impact of energy efficiency and renewable energy on country’s economic growth/ GDP 4. Provide substantive support to the RCO team with data mining, and subsequent modeling, analyzing and visualization; 5. Assess the share of energy prices costs in the prime cost of agricultural production (sub-sectors: cereals, horticulture, livestock) and transportation sector (public and private);

Qualifications/special skills Master’s degree in Statistics, Econometrics or Social Science is desirable/an advantage

Fluent written and oral (technical level) of Romanian and Russian languages and working knowledge of English is required.

Minimum 3 years of professional experience in statistical data analysis and econometric model development is a requirement.

Experience in econometric model development and calibration is required. Expertise in data visualization is an asset is desirable/an advantage.

Experience in research and data collection on economic development topics is required.

Expertise in Eviews, R-project or other statistical software packages is required.

Good understanding and knowledge of the econometrics, economic statistics, national accounts, forecasting methods of macro-financial indicators is required.

Knowledge of budgetary process represents an advantage is desirable/an advantage

Fair knowledge of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the SDGs, and familiarity with their implementation at the country level is desirable/an advantage.

Additional Information The UN Moldova is committed to workforce diversity. Women, persons with disabilities, Roma and other ethnic or religious minorities, persons living with HIV, as well as refugees and other non-citizens legally entitled to work in the Republic of Moldova, are equally encouraged to apply.

No Fee THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.