Consultancy on macroeconomic forecasts and policy simulations to inform better decisions on financing social expenditures and the SDGs

Consultant Finance & Economy

Overview

Support macro-fiscal modelling and policy simulations in Lebanon for better financing decisions.

You have:

• A Master's degree or equivalent in economics, econometrics or related field is required.
• A first-level university degree with 15 years of qualifying experience may be accepted in lieu of the advanced degree.
• A minimum of 15 years of professional work experience in analyzing macroeconomic policy issues is required.
• Publication in reputed journals in the field is desirable.
• Familiarity with the World Economic and Forecasting Model is desirable.
• Knowledge of economic development issues of Arab countries is desirable.
• Fluency in English is required; knowledge of Arabic and French is desirable.

Contract

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Result of Service

The consultant will deliver the following in a timely manner: • Extended single country macro-economic model for Lebanon. • In- depth, 3-days training on macro-econometric modelling in Lebanon (full introductory training of the extended single-country WEFM and use of the interface for policy simulations). • Comments on interface-based policy simulations of Lebanon model. • Substantive comments and feedback on the draft of the user-friendly manual for policymakers, policy notes and recommendations for Lebanon. • Updated, extended single country macro-economic models for Jordan and Tunisia, based on the previous models delivered in 2024.

Work Location

Remote

Expected duration

2 months

Duties and Responsibilities

Background: Macro-fiscal modelling and forecasting have become more important than ever for governments around the world to assess the impact of the global economic shocks on macroeconomic performance, develop alternate scenarios and forecasts to inform evidence-based policy responses to support their economies and societies. The challenge is more pressing for developing countries with limited fiscal space and high debt service burden. Structuring the government expenditures and debt in a way that maximizes the macroeconomic performance and development outcomes while minimizes debt and fiscal risks is a priority for these governments. Against this background, member states are putting up efforts in improving their capacity to develop macro-fiscal modelling tools for short- and medium-term forecasting and policy simulations. ESCWA has supported training and capacity development on macro-fiscal modelling and policy simulations in several member states, particularly focusing on enhancing fiscal space for financing social expenditures and sustainable development toward achieving their development priorities and visions. ESCWA has developed a Macro-Fiscal Modelling and Forecasting (MFMF) user-friendly interface for assessing policy scenarios and decision support of high-level officials. ESCWA’s MFMF tool is adopted from UN World Economic Forecasting Model (WEFM), which is tailored for the single country and extended in scope to provide forecasts and policy simulations that support growth, enhanced social expenditures and fiscal sustainability. Following this background, ESCWA in cooperation with the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) is implementing a capacity development project for targeted member states to help policymakers in improving their capacity to use macro-fiscal modelling and the modelling interface in the ex-ante assessment of the effect of debt and fiscal policy choices on macroeconomic performance and financing sustainable development aligned with their development priorities. So far, the pilot phase has been completed for Tunisia and Jordan. Lebanon will be the next country to benefit from this capacity development activity. An advanced training on macro-fiscal modelling and forecasting for Lebanon is planned in Q1 2026. The extended single-country WEFM model for Lebanon should be developed and implemented prior to the training. One of the key outcomes of the training is the user-friendly interface that will support decision-makers to assess macroeconomic policy scenarios as they would not have to go through solving the systems equations, which will remain at the backend of the interface. General Objective The objective of this consultancy is to support training and capacity development on macro-fiscal modelling and policy simulations in Lebanon, particularly focusing on enhancing fiscal space for financing social expenditures and sustainable development toward achieving development priorities and visions, by providing policymakers from the Ministry of Finance and other relevant entities access to extended single-country WEFM through user-friendly interface as well as conducting an advanced training in Lebanon to expand their capacities. Furthermore, the update of the model for Jordan and Tunisia is envisaged to assure the applicability of the model and extend the duration of the project results. Duties and Responsibilities The consultancy is related to the ongoing work to update extended single country WEFM models for Jordan and Tunisia with newest available data, and to preparing extended single country WEFM model for Lebanon. The consultant will work in close cooperation with the Project Manager and project team at ESCWA. The main duty of the consultant is to prepare and deliver an advanced training on macro-fiscal modelling and forecasting for Lebanon and update the extended single-country WEFM model for Jordan and Tunisia: In this context, the consultant will be required to: • Produce the extended single country macro-economic model forecasts and simulations for Lebanon, in discussion with ESCWA staff. • Develop comprehensive training materials that will be used throughout the 3-day in-depth training workshop in Lebanon, including presentation slides and other resources as needed. • Lead and deliver the in depth, 3-days training on macro-econometric modelling in Lebanon in Q1 2026. • Advise and provide feedback on the preparation of policy notes and recommendations based on modelling exercise results for Lebanon as well as on the draft manual of the model. • Provide updates to the single country macro-economic model forecasts and simulations for Jordan and Tunisia, in discussion with ESCWA staff, DESA and in line with the newest available results of the WEFM model.

Qualifications/special skills

A Master’s degree or equivalent in economics, econometrics or related field is required. A first-level university degree in combination with qualifying experience may be accepted in lieu of the advanced university degree. All candidates must submit a copy of the required educational degree. Incomplete applications will not be reviewed. A minimum of 15 years of professional work experience in analyzing macroeconomic policy issues, particularly macro econometric modeling and forecasting exercises, is required Publication in reputed journals in this field is desirable. Familiarity with the World Economic and Forecasting model is desirable. Knowledge of economic development issues of Arab countries is desirable.

Languages

English and French are the working languages of the United Nations Secretariat; and Arabic is a working language of ESCWA. For this position, fluency in English is required. Note: “Fluency” equals a rating of ‘fluent’ in all four areas (speak, read, write, and understand) and “Knowledge of” equals a rating of ‘confident’ in two of the four areas.

Additional Information

Not available.

No Fee

THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.

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Added 8 months ago - Updated 7 months ago - Source: careers.un.org