Consultancy - Microsimulation of the feasibility of Universal Child Benefit (UCB) in Tunisia - GORaF, Florence, Italy, 6 months, Remote/Work from home

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UNICEF works in some of the world’s toughest places, to reach the world’s most disadvantaged children. To save their lives. To defend their rights. To help them fulfill their potential.

Across 190 countries and territories, we work for every child, everywhere, every day, to build a better world for everyone.

And we never give up.

For every child, answers.

UNICEF Innocenti – Global Office of Research and Foresight (GORaF) is the dedicated research office of UNICEF. It undertakes and commissions research on emerging or current issues of relevance for children to inform the strategic directions, policies and programs of UNICEF and its partners. The Office explores emerging issues, identifies research gaps, brings together existing researchers, and supports or undertakes research and data collection to address critical questions to inform global debates.

UNICEF Innocenti is collaborating with the UNICEF Tunisia country office (TCO) in generating high quality evidence on social protection to contribute to the advocacy efforts for social protection in Tunisia and globally. One pillar of the research is to assess the feasibility, benefit incidence, efficiency, and affordability of UCB in Tunisia, and to assess the macroeconomic returns of the UCB in the short-, mid-, and long-term. A similar study conducted in 2019 found that UCB will be highly progressive with the poorest decile receiving 15 per cent of benefits compared to 6 per cent of the richest decile. The study further found that the UCB will be highly cost-effective such that the cost of achieving a one percentage point reduction in child poverty headcount was less through UCB than through existing poverty-targeted Programme Nationale d’aide aux Familles Necessiteuses (PNAFN). In addition, a comprehensive UCB of about 350 dinars a year (about USD 10 a month) per child for all Tunisian children will cost about 1.09 per cent of the GDP in 2025. However, the study concluded that the UCB for all children in Tunisia was beyond the financial resources of Tunisia under the prevailing conditions without reforms to create additional fiscal space. With a new outlook in terms of economic growth prospects and fiscal space possibilities, this study seeks to update the previous study, and complement it with the CGE modelling to provide a sense of the expected macroeconomic returns to inform policy decisions.

How can you make a difference?

Scope of Work: The consultant will be expected to undertake microsimulation of the total cost of UCB in Tunisia (for various amounts of the UCB), benefit incidence analysis, cost effectiveness in comparison to alternative social protection programmes, and affordability in terms of government fiscal balance. The consultant will then undertake a CGE modelling of the returns of the UCB to the Tunisia economy, train National research partners on the CGE modelling and other methodologies, and make presentations to national partners. The consultant is expected to produce a 30–40-page report of the findings and a 5-page brief.

Major areas of work and responsibility: The consultant will be responsible for finalizing the data needs and methodologies for the microsimulations and CGE models, undertake the analysis, draft a 30-40 page report detailing the background, methodology, results and recommendations, present results to country stakeholders for inputs, train national research partners on the CGE methodology, and develop a 5-pager brief.

Deliverables:

Deliverable/Output:Number of working days' estimate:Deadline:1. Inception report (up to 10 pages max) detailing the background, objectives, data needs and methodologies.10By 30 November 20232. Data compilation and analysis leading to draft report.25By 15 January 20243. In country validation workshop with key stakeholders and training of national partners on CGE methodology5By 31 January 20244. Final report incorporating comments from in-country validation workshop (about 30-40 pages)

5. Summary brief of the report (5 pages maximum)

15By 31 March 2024To qualify as an advocate for every child you will have:

Essential skills: • Master’s in economics, public/social policy, development studies, or international development or related field. • At least 5 years of progressively responsible experience conducting research micro and macro simulations, with CGE modelling experience • Ability to organize own work and to carry out a research project with limited supervision according to deadlines. • Ability to speak and write fluently in French and English.

Desirable qualifications: • PhD in Economics, public/social policy, development studies, or international development or related field. • Peer reviewed publications with microsimulation and macro simulation approaches. • Thinks and acts strategically. • Works collaboratively with others • Ability to work in a multi-cultural environment and establish harmonious and effective working relationships both within and outside the organization.

For every Child, you demonstrate:

UNICEF's values of Care, Respect, Integrity, Trust, Accountability, and Sustainability (CRITAS).

To view our competency framework, please visit here.

UNICEF is here to serve the world’s most disadvantaged children and our global workforce must reflect the diversity of those children. The UNICEF family is committed to include everyone, irrespective of their race/ethnicity, age, disability, gender identity, sexual orientation, religion, nationality, socio-economic background, or any other personal characteristic.

UNICEF offers reasonable accommodation for consultants/individual contractors with disabilities. This may include, for example, accessible software, travel assistance for missions or personal attendants. We encourage you to disclose your disability during your application in case you need reasonable accommodation during the selection process and afterwards in your assignment.

UNICEF has a zero-tolerance policy on conduct that is incompatible with the aims and objectives of the United Nations and UNICEF, including sexual exploitation and abuse, sexual harassment, abuse of authority and discrimination. UNICEF also adheres to strict child safeguarding principles. All selected candidates will be expected to adhere to these standards and principles and will therefore undergo rigorous reference and background checks. Background checks will include the verification of academic credential(s) and employment history. Selected candidates may be required to provide additional information to conduct a background check.

Remarks:

Only shortlisted candidates will be contacted and advance to the next stage of the selection process.

Individuals engaged under a consultancy or individual contract will not be considered “staff members” under the Staff Regulations and Rules of the United Nations and UNICEF’s policies and procedures, and will not be entitled to benefits provided therein (such as leave entitlements and medical insurance coverage). Their conditions of service will be governed by their contract and the General Conditions of Contracts for the Services of Consultants and Individual Contractors. Consultants and individual contractors are responsible for determining their tax liabilities and for the payment of any taxes and/or duties, in accordance with local or other applicable laws.

The selected candidate is solely responsible to ensure that the visa (applicable) and health insurance required to perform the duties of the contract are valid for the entire period of the contract. Selected candidates are subject to confirmation of fully-vaccinated status against SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) with a World Health Organization (WHO)-endorsed vaccine, which must be met prior to taking up the assignment. It does not apply to consultants who will work remotely and are not expected to work on or visit UNICEF premises, programme delivery locations or directly interact with communities UNICEF works with, nor to travel to perform functions for UNICEF for the duration of their consultancy contracts.