Consultancy: Fiscal Space Analysis of Social Protection in Iraq, UNICEF Iraq (International consultancy)

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Purpose of Activity/Assignment: Iraq faces significant public finance challenges due to a combination of internal and external factors. Some of the main challenges include dependence on oil revenues, high level of debt, weak institutional capacity and lack of investment in public service. Iraq's economy is heavily reliant on oil revenues, which account for over 90% of its total revenue. This dependence on oil makes the economy vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices and production, which can have a significant impact on the government's ability to fund public services. The country's debt has been rising steadily in recent years. Iraq's public debt is estimated to be around 80% of GDP, which puts significant pressure on the government's finances. Furthermore, public finance management systems constrained by weak institutional capacity, which hampers the government's ability to implement fiscal policies effectively. Inadequate financial management systems, weak tax collection, and a lack of transparency in budgeting and spending have all contributed to public finance challenges. Finally, Iraq faces significant challenges in delivering basic services such as electricity, water, and healthcare. The government has struggled to invest in infrastructure and improve service delivery due to financial constraints and the impact of conflicts. Government of Iraq ability to providing adequate social protection to its citizens, particularly those living in poverty or affected by conflict is constrained. Despite efforts by the government and international partners, social protection programs in Iraq face a number of challenges, including limited coverage, inadequate funding, and weak coordination between different programs.

It is estimated that effective coverage of social protection – the population’s coverage by at least one social protection benefit – is just 40.5%. When breaking down this aggregate by the function of social protection, contributors to pension (52.7%) and coverage by old-age support (33.1%) are the highest, whilst coverage for vulnerability status (26.9%) and disability (9.3%) are very low.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, poverty levels in Iraq were modelled to have increased from 20% in 2018 to 31.7 per cent in 2020. This equates to 4.5 million people falling into poverty as a result of the pandemic, adding to the 6.9 million people living in poverty pre-crisis. Further, children suffer even higher poverty rates and vulnerability to poverty. It was estimated that the combination of food price increases and declining incomes associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown measures led to a temporary rise in child poverty rates by 15.8 percent, higher than any other age group, temporarily bringing the poverty rate for this age group up to 37.9 per cent. During the same period, their Multidimensional Vulnerability Index (MVI) was estimated to be 48.8%, underlining the elevated risk that children face in times of shock and social services disruptions. In considering that children under 18 account for 45% of the Iraqi population, the negative impact of such vulnerability has widespread implications for Iraqi households and the economy at large. I nternational partners call on Government of Iraq to increase its spending on social protection programs, including cash transfers and food assistance, to provide a basic safety net for vulnerable populations. To address current challenges, Iraq needs to strengthen its institutional capacity, improve coordination and targeting of social protection programs, increase fiscal space, and promote diversification and formalisation of the economy.

In 2021 UNICEF, WFP, ILO partnered with EU to support the Government of Iraq to catalyse more effective social protection response in the short-term and to support Iraq to accelerate reform in the medium and longer-term to build a coherent and sustainable social protection system. The Joint Program “Social Protection: Leveraging Effective Response & Accelerating Reform” aims to contribute to social protection reform in Iraq by adapting, expanding and innovating social protection responses to address immediate needs of households in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as effectively reduce the negative implications of the crisis in the short and long-term on human development. The initiated reform aims to improve public policy environment for sustainable and inclusive expansion of social protection, and to reinforce capacities of federal and regional authorities to deliver quality child, age and disability sensitive, and gender responsive social protection programs and services. Currently the EU Joint Program partners have been providing technical assistance to GoI on development of a social protection strategy and reform roadmap in Iraq. In February 2023, sector-wide consultations were initiated to discuss and deliberate potential options for the strategic principles and pillars for the social protection strategic framework (SPSF) in Iraq and get broad-based agreement on the key strategic priorities for the strategy.

The proposed fiscal space analysis (FSA) aims to assess Government of Iraq ability to finance its social protection policy objectives while maintaining fiscal sustainability. The analysis could focus on the following aspects as revenue mobilization, expenditure prioritization, debt sustainability, macroeconomic stability and external factors (commodity prices, geopolitical and security risks).

Tasks/Milestone and Deliverables/Outputs: Desk review, inception and scoping consultation Deliverable: Inception report outlining the methodology, data sources, and work plan for the analysis (10 days)

Fiscal space analysis and modelling of policy options Deliverable: Draft report summarizing the findings of the fiscal space analysis and economic models, including an assessment of the potential sources of additional fiscal space and their associated risks and challenges (30 days)

Stakeholder consultations, and presentation of the draft report to relevant stakeholders (including 3 days for online meetings, and 5 working days in country mission) Deliverable: Presentation slide deck for stakeholder consultations (8 days)

Final report incorporating feedback from stakeholders and providing a comprehensive analysis of the fiscal space of social protection programs in Iraq, as well as specific policy measures and actions for improving fiscal sustainability and enhancing the effectiveness of social protection programs Deliverable: Final report (20 days)

Duration: 68 working days spread between 15 May and 15 September 2023. Remote consultancy with mission to Baghdad from 29 July -5 August 2023 planned.

Recruitment qualifications: - Advanced degree in economics, public finance, or related field. - At least 8 years of relevant professional experience in fiscal policy analysis, including experience working in developing countries. - Strong analytical skills, with experience conducting fiscal space analysis and providing policy recommendations. - Excellent communication skills, with experience presenting complex analysis to diverse audiences. - Familiarity with the social protection system and political and economic context of Iraq and MENA region is an asset.

UNICEF's values of Care, Respect, Integrity, Trust, Accountability, and Sustainability (CRITAS).

Payment of professional fees will be based on submission of agreed deliverables. UNICEF reserves the right to withhold payment in case the deliverables submitted are not up to the required standard or in case of delays in submitting the deliverables on the part of the consultant. Candidates must submit an all-inclusive fee for the assignment. UNICEF will provide travel for the assignment and in-country travel if required.

Individuals engaged under a consultancy or individual contract will not be considered “staff members” under the Staff Regulations and Rules of the United Nations and UNICEF’s policies and procedures, and will not be entitled to benefits provided therein (such as leave entitlements and medical insurance coverage). Their conditions of service will be governed by their contract and the General Conditions of Contracts for the Services of Consultants and Individual Contractors. Consultants and individual contractors are responsible for determining their tax liabilities and for the payment of any taxes and/or duties, in accordance with local or other applicable laws.

The selected candidate is solely responsible to ensure that the visa (applicable) and health insurance required to perform the duties of the contract are valid for the entire period of the contract. Selected candidates are subject to confirmation of fully-vaccinated status against SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) with a World Health Organization (WHO)-endorsed vaccine, which must be met prior to taking up the assignment. It does not apply to consultants who will work remotely and are not expected to work on or visit UNICEF premises, programme delivery locations or directly interact with communities UNICEF works with, nor to travel to perform functions for UNICEF for the duration of their consultancy contracts.