Business cycles, productive heterogeneity and income distribution: Bayesian estimation of macroeconomic models with heterogeneous agents

Result of Service As a final result of the study, two computer simulation models for evaluating economic policies will be presented, the methodology and main results of the two estimated models, accompanied by the necessary computer codes for the reproduction of the results.

Work Location Brasília

Expected duration 180 Days

Duties and Responsibilities The consultancy aims to build macroeconomic models computer simulation models for the evaluation of economic policies in which the economic cycle is conditioned by two dimensions of heterogeneity: in the labor productivity of different classes of families and in differentials of productivity across companies.

In this sense, the consultancy will develop the following activities: 1- to estimate two models of business cycles with heterogeneous agents for Brazil, combining microdata and aggregated time series using the “Approximate Bayesian Computation” (ABC) approach for estimation with auxiliary statistics. One of them is a model of productive heterogeneity under Knightian uncertainty, and the other one is a model of business cycles with distributive inequality; 2- present reports with estimation results; 3- present computational codes.

Qualifications/special skills -An advanced university degree (doctorate degree or equivalent) in statistic. -- minimum of 10 years in teaching and research in Bayesian inference. Experience in bayesian estimation of DSGE models. - At least 1 (one) article published in the area of statistics.

Languages-- Fluency in Portuguese and English

Additional Information Outputs/ Works Assignment: The consultation will present the methodology and main results of the two estimated economic policy evaluation models, accompanied by the computational codes necessary for the reproduction of the results, in 3 reports (products). The consultant should deliver the completed plans in the following order and dates: -Product 1. Report with methodological discussion of the ABC approach for estimating structural models.. To be submitted 60 days after start date. -Product 2 - Report with preliminary results of estimation and computational codes. To be submitted 120 days after start; Product 3 - Final version of the study, including complete computational codes. To be submitted 180 days after start The reports should be drafted in Portuguese in an editable format agreed with the supervisor.

No Fee THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.