Aging and Social Security - Life Tables for the main INSS Beneficiary Groups - Part 2

Result of Service As a final result of the research, the consultancy will present analyzes on patterns, levels and curves of mortality among beneficiaries of the National Institute of Social Security-INSS, as well as the construction of Life Tables, allowing the reproducibility of mortality estimates and the possibility of follow-up continuous and consistent of these indicators. It is hoped that the studies produced will qualify the social security debate and be used in various studies and evaluations aimed at formulating and improving social protection policies in Brazil.

Work Location Brasília

Expected duration 180 Days

Duties and Responsibilities The objective of this study is the production of Table Rating Charts based on age, according to the gender, for the main groups of beneficiaries served by the INSS – retirees by age, disaggregated by Clienteles, Urban and Rural, of the General Social Security System (RGPS); retirees by their contribution time to the RGPS; and beneficiaries of Assistance Support services for low-income seniors. The specific objectives the consultant, to which the main goals of this research are associated include: a) Application of a multistate model (increment-decrement) for the construction of Table Rating Charts, which may include additional modeling that is robust and widely recognized in the specialized literature for comparing results, related to four selected subgroups of INSS beneficiaries, namely: 1. Rural Pensions by age (API-RUR); 2. Urban Retirements by age (API-URB); 3. Retirement Contribution over Time (ATC); and, 4. assistance benefits for low-income seniors (jointly Lifetime Monthly Income – RMV and Continuous Cash Benefit – BPC); b) Elaboration and sharing of computational programs, reproducible in equipment and software available at IPEA, developed specifically to produce adjusted mortality estimates. The programs must include both proposed methodologies, as well as be accompanied by descriptive material that allows their understanding and future reproducibility; c) Elaboration of the Final Report containing the description of the used methodologies, the main results obtained, the comparison between both estimated results (according to the two chosen methodologies) and, as a consistency reference, between these and the estimates generated by the IBGE for the overall Brazilian population.

Qualifications/special skills -An advanced university degree (doctoral’s degree or equivalent) in Demography or Actuarial Science. - minimum of 5 years in scientific research, data tabulation in the areas of demography, statistics or actuarial sciences. Experience in developing mortality estimates, particularly from databases that require treatment and modeling to correct inaccurate recording or underreporting of deaths..

Languages - read in English; - Fluency in Portuguese;

Additional Information Outputs/ Works Assignment: The consultancy will present documents containing systematization of surveyed data, the methodology and/or tools used for simulations and analyzes on the mortality curves of INSS beneficiaries, and the construction of Life Tables, in 5 reports (products). The consultant should deliver the completed plans in the following order and dates: - Product 1. Detailed Work Plan and preliminary structure of the database. To be submitted 30 days after start date. -Product 2 - Research Report, partial - Review of specialized literature, proposed methodological options for carrying out the research and definitive structure of the database and the variables necessary for its application. To be submitted 65 days after start; -Product 3 - Research Report, Partial - Analysis and criticism of the data received for the study. To be submitted 110 days after start -Product 4. Research Report, partial - Development and application of proposed methodologies. To be submitted 160 days after start; -Product 5. Final research report consolidating all analyses. To be submitted 180 days after start. The reports should be drafted in Portuguese in an editable format agreed with the supervisor.

No Fee THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.