Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model Consultant

Result of Service NAFS programme is seeking services of a consultant to prepare a study to estimate the impact of UCMs on the Syrian economy using economic modelling techniques. Under the overall guidance of the programme manager and working closely with the ESCWA modelling division and NAFS economic Affairs Expert

Work Location Not on premises

Expected duration The assignment will be delivered in six weeks from the signature date of the contract.

Duties and Responsibilities Under the overall guidance of the programme manager and working closely with the ESCWA modelling division and NAFS economic Affairs Expert, the consultant shall be performing the following assigned duties: - Utilizes the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model developed for estimating the benefits of peace in Syria on neighboring countries to assess the impact of UCMs on the Syrian economy between 2010-2021 and have it singled out from the other factors affected they Syrian economy throughout the conflict. The modelling exercise needs to estimate the direct and indirect impact of UCMs on, but not limited to, the following indicators: o The macroeconomic indicators: GDP level and growth, foreign trade, inflation, employment, public finance, foreign exchange, and the aggregate consumption and aggregate saving. o The direct and indirect impact on the key economic sectors including extractive industry, manufacturing, agriculture, construction, finance, transport, and tourism. - Utilizes CGE model to identify and map the transmission channels of UCMs with details on the first, second, and third layers of effects whenever possible. - Provide policy recommendations on the mitigation measures to be taken to minimize the impact of UCMs. - Include as part of exercise an indication about the impact of the chilling effect of UCMS and the disruption they bring to the economic system and leads to de-risking. - Produce a report that documents the modeling process, interpret findings in the conflict context, and provide conflict sensitive policy recommendations to mitigates the impact of the UCMs and provide suggestion for UCMs imposers on the possible UCMs adjustments. - Include a projection about the impact of UCMs in case of post-conflict scenario. - Attend the relevant NAFS EGM meeting to present and discuss the findings. - Incorporates feedback received on the report from NAFS and ESCWA team and from experts in the EGM in the final version of the report.

Qualifications/special skills Skills: Strong background in public economics and proven experience of conducting similar studies, demonstrated significant experience running computable general equilibrium (CGE) models such as GTAP, linkage with working knowledge of the strengths and drawbacks of different modeling approaches and familiarity with the GTAP data base, advanced programming skills in GAMS are required while programming in Stata would be highly desirable. Academic Qualifications: Master's degree in Economics (PhD preferred) with a strong quantitative and computational background is required. Experience: At least 15 years of experience in economic modelling, policy analysis in development context is required. Language: Fluency in English is required.

No Fee THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.